Match report →
DC United – CF Montréal4 : 4
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.43
Total xG
2.88
CF Montréal
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.94 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.74 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Jackson Hopkins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Iván Jaime on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with a 36% probability for a home win and 36% for an away win
- DC United shows a positive offensive trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals)
- CF Montréal displays significant defensive vulnerability in away games, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per match
Risks
- For DC United, the unlisted Jackson Hopkins is missing, affecting 18% of the usual assist share
- CF Montréal has a key attacker, Prince Owusu, in declining form (0.24 goals/90 min recently vs. 0.59 goals/90 min season average)
- DC United operates with low possession (averaging 35% in the last 5 games), which could lead to prolonged defensive periods
All probabilities
Result
DC United36%
Draw28%
CF Montréal36%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
DC United or draw64%
CF Montréal or draw64%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
4:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- CF Montréal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- DC United with Jared Stroud: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- CF Montréal with Daniel Ríos: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- DC United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- DC United: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
Lineups
DC United 4-4-2 · CF Montréal 4-3-3
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 8 J. Stroud
- 4 M. Peltola
- 23 B. Servania
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 11 L. Munteanu
- 9 T. Baribo
CF Montréal
- 31 T. Guilier
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 29 O. Escobar
- 22 V. Loturi
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 9 P. Owusu
- 23 N. Streit
Substitutes
- 12 W. Antley
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 30 C. Clark
- 48 G. Turner
- 77 H. Kijima
- 17 J. Murrell
- 24 J. Farr
- 1 S. Breza
- 2 J. Neal
- 6 S. Piette
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 17 D. Þórhallsson
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 5 B. Craig
- 7 K. Opoku
- 25 F. Amaya
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