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Major League Soccer

DC United - CF Montréal

05/23/2026, 11:30 PM

4 : 4
Expected Goals
DC United
1.4
Total xG
2.9
CF Montréal
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DUCM

DC United

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.94
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.46
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
Jackson Hopkins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

CF Montréal

Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.74
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Iván Jaime on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    CF Montréal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    DC United with Jared Stroud: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    CF Montréal with Daniel Ríos: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    DC United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    DC United: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

28%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with a 36% probability for a home win and 36% for an away win
  • DC United shows a positive offensive trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals)
  • CF Montréal displays significant defensive vulnerability in away games, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per match
Risk Factors
  • For DC United, the unlisted Jackson Hopkins is missing, affecting 18% of the usual assist share
  • CF Montréal has a key attacker, Prince Owusu, in declining form (0.24 goals/90 min recently vs. 0.59 goals/90 min season average)
  • DC United operates with low possession (averaging 35% in the last 5 games), which could lead to prolonged defensive periods
Overview

DC United (8th place, 17 points) host CF Montréal (13th place, 13 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 23, 2026, 7:30 PM. The game promises excitement as both teams vie for crucial league points.

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

DC United's recent form is WWDLD, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Their last game ended in a draw

CF Montréal's recent form is WLWDL, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last game resulted in a loss

DC United is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals), indicating a positive form trend

CF Montréal's goal production is stagnant (1.2 goals), compared to their season average of 1.4 goals, suggesting a negative form trend

Statistics

DC United averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game

In home matches, DC United averaged 1.17 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded

The team achieved 4 clean sheets

CF Montréal scored an average of 1.38 goals per game and conceded 2.08 goals

In away matches, CF Montréal scored an average of 1.33 goals but conceded a high 3.33 goals

CF Montréal achieved 3 clean sheets

DC United's matches saw over 2.5 goals in 7 instances, while CF Montréal's matches had over 2.5 goals in 10 instances

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, both teams recorded 1 win each, with 2 draws

The goal difference stands at 4:5 in favor of CF Montréal

The last encounter on August 16, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

For DC United, Louis Munteanu is in rising form with 5 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Tai Baribo also showed rising form with 4 goals in his last 5 games

Peglow has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists this season

For CF Montréal, Matty Longstaff is in rising form with 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games

Prince Owusu scored 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Wikelman José Carmona Torres contributed 1 goal in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

DC United's goalkeeper, Sean Johnson, has recorded 4 clean sheets this season, including 1 in home games

CF Montréal achieved 3 clean sheets this season, with 1 in away games

Thomas Guilier is expected to start in goal for CF Montréal

Influences

DC United averages 1.17 goals scored at home and concedes 2.0 goals

CF Montréal's away games are often high-scoring, with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 3.33 goals conceded per game

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