Match report →
New York City – Atlanta United2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
New York City
1.54
Total xG
2.83
Atlanta United
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York City | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.42 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| M. Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Elías Báez on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Ajani Fortune on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: New York City averages 1.8 goals per home game in the league, Atlanta United concedes 1.47 per away game
- Table: New York City is 12th in the league with 35 points, while Atlanta United is 14th with 30 points
Risks
- Form: New York City is winless in its last 5 games with 3 draws and 2 losses
- Defense: Atlanta United allowed 1.14 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 2.2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
New York City42%
Draw28%
Atlanta United30%
Double chance
New York City or draw70%
Atlanta United or draw58%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.54 : 1.29, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (9 points lost)
- Atlanta United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New York City with Hannes Wolf starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (17/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
New York City 4-2-3-1 · Atlanta United 4-1-4-1
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 17 H. Wolf
- 16 A. Martínez Batista
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 47 M. Edwards
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 11 G. Galoppo
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
- 36 B. Embolo
Substitutes
- 9 B. Traore
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 55 K. Alexander Parks
- 3 M. Miazga
- 88 M. Jones
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 7 S. Alzate
- 20 L. Brennan
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 22 F. Picault
- 35 A. Fortune
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