Major League Soccer
San Diego - Cincinnati
05/17/2026, 01:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.3
1.4
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
San Diego
Cincinnati
League
The Lab
- 1Cincinnati with Ayoub Jabbari: 10 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Cincinnati: 42% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 19)
- 3San Diego with Jeppe TverskovĀ : 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4San Diego: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5San Diego: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
25%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Mathematical Analysis: The model predicts a 46% home win probability for San Diego with 1.83 expected home goals
- Defensive Strength vs. Weakness: San Diego concedes only 0.89 goals at home, while Cincinnati allows a high 3.33 goals per away game
- Attacking Power: Cincinnati's current form shows a higher goal average of 2.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.1 goals
Risk Factors
- Short Rest: San Diego had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Inconsistent Form: San Diego's overall form (LLDDW) before their last win indicates some inconsistency
- High Shots on Target: Cincinnati averaged 4.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview
San Diego (9th place, 16 points) host Cincinnati (8th place, 16 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 17, 2026, 1:30 AM. Both teams are level on points in the table, competing for a better position.
Form
San Diego's form across all competitions is LLDDW, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match resulted in a win. Cincinnati's form is DWWDL, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match resulted in a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
San Diego scores an average of 1.92 goals per game and concedes 1.54 goals. At home, they average 2.00 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded. They have 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 matches. Cincinnati scores an average of 2.08 goals per game and concedes 2.46 goals. Away from home, they average 2.17 goals scored and a high 3.33 goals conceded. They have 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 9 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches. San Diego consistently scores (~1.9 goals per game). Cincinnati is currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (2.1).
Head-to-Head
There are no direct head-to-head matches between San Diego and Cincinnati available in the dataset.
Key Players
San Diego can rely on Marcus Ingvartsen (9 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 7.25, stable), who scored 4 goals in the last 5 games. Anders Dreyer (6 goals, 5 assists, Avg Rating 7.71, stable) contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances. Onni Valakari (3 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 7.14, stable) provided 2 assists in his last 5 games. For Cincinnati, KĆ©vin Denkey (8 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 7.26, rising) is a key force with 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 matches. Evander (7 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 7.61, rising) scored 6 goals in his last 5 games. Pavel Bucha (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 6.88, stable) was involved in 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 matches. Bryan RamĆrez (0G/2A) is not nominated for Cincinnati.
Goalkeepers
Duran Ferree is San Diego's goalkeeper, having played 12 games with an average rating of 6.92. He recorded 4 clean sheets, 3 of which were in home games. Roman Celentano is Cincinnati's goalkeeper, with 11 appearances and an average rating of 6.89. He has 2 clean sheets but none in away games.
Influences
San Diego demonstrates strong home performance, averaging 2.00 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded per home game. Cincinnati, on the other hand, concedes a high average of 3.33 goals per away game.