Match report →
Charlotte – Dallas3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Charlotte
1.61
Total xG
3.12
Dallas
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlotte | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Idan Toklomati not in squad (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Liel Abada not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| David Schnegg on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Ran Binyamin not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ramiro not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Bernard Kamungo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Dallas form momentum: Visitors enter unbeaten with form string WWWDW, averaging 2.5 goals in recent matches
- Surface advantage: Charlotte hold 5 wins on artificial turf (16:9 goals), while Dallas are winless (0-1-2)
- Pipeline prediction: Mathematical modeling estimates a 64% probability for both teams to score
Risks
- Idan Toklomati, Liel Abada and David Schnegg are missing from Charlotte's lineup (only 80% goal threat available)
- Dallas concede an average of 1.69 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Charlotte39%
Draw27%
Dallas35%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Charlotte or draw65%
Dallas or draw61%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')
- Charlotte: 61% of all goals in the first half (14 of 23, last 12 games)
Lineups
Charlotte 4-2-3-1 · Dallas 3-4-2-1
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 22 F. Kessler
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 8 A. Westwood
- 13 B. Bronico
- 11 L. Abada
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 32 N. Norris
- 14 H. Johansson
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 12 C. Cappis
- 18 S. Moore
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 23 L. Farrington
Substitutes
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 3 T. Ream
- 4 A. Privett
- 7 A. Goodwin
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 25 T. Smalls
- 28 D. Diani
- 37 R. Aloko
- 20 B. Coulibaly
- 35 W. Cleary
- 71 N. Richmond
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 9 P. Musa
- 11 A. Julio Santos
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 28 S. Sarver
- 30 M. Collodi
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 27 C. Swann
- 40 J. Sirois
- 16 N. Simmonds
- 10 S. Moreno
- 33 C. Holstad
- 7 D. Job
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →