Match report →
LA Galaxy – New England2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.20
Total xG
3.03
New England
1.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | New England |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.70 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Joseph Paintsil on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Lucas Sanabria on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Maya Yoshida on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis predicts an away win for New England with a probability of 51%
- New England showed offensive strength recently, averaging 6.6 shots on target in past matches
- The visitors score consistently, averaging 1.7 goals per game according to advanced stats
Risks
- Joseph Paintsil, Lucas Sanabria, and Maya Yoshida are missing, leaving only 69% of the usual goal threat available
- Limited data availability regarding the head-to-head (H2H) record
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy23%
Draw26%
New England51%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw49%
New England or draw77%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1 · New England 4-2-3-1
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 26 H. Miller
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 15 J. Haak
- 3 J. Aude
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 27 E. Thommy
- 21 R. Taylor
- 18 M. Reus
- 11 H. Lozano Bahena
- 7 K. Furuhashi
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 21 B. Raines
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 11 J. Harrison
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 25 P. Miller
- 99 D. Turgeman
Substitutes
- 1 N. Mićović
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 14 J. Nelson
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 16 I. Parente
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 12 I. Feingold
- 14 J. Yueill
- 33 D. Parisian
- 41 L. Langoni
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
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