Match report →
Dallas – Columbus Crew0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Dallas
1.66
Total xG
3.01
Columbus Crew
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Dallas | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Joaquín Valiente on the bench (2 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Kaick on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Herman Johansson on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sebastien Ibeagha on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brais Méndez not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Josef Martínez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 99% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Dallas scores 1.93 goals per home game in the league, while Columbus Crew concedes 2.0 per away game
- Table: Dallas sits 2nd in the league with 54 points from 31 games, while Columbus Crew is 10th with 38 points
Risks
- Form: Columbus Crew won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 2.6 goals per game in that period
- Shots on target: Columbus Crew averaged 8.6 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches, Dallas 4.8 per game
All probabilities
Result
Dallas43%
Draw27%
Columbus Crew30%
Double chance
Dallas or draw70%
Columbus Crew or draw57%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.66 : 1.36, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SJ Earthquakes: 3 goals (82', 88', 90+4')
- Dallas: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Dallas: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Columbus Crew: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew with Mohamed Farsi starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (15/11 games, last 30)
Lineups
Dallas 3-4-3 · Columbus Crew 3-4-3
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 18 S. Moore
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 32 N. Norris
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 12 C. Cappis
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 9 P. Musa
- 10 S. Moreno
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 23 M. Farsi
- 7 D. Chambost
- 16 T. Habroune
- 11 B. Lennon
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 21 A. Zaroury
Substitutes
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 11 A. Julio Santos
- 14 H. Johansson
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 27 C. Swann
- 40 J. Sirois
- 7 D. Job
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 77 J. Martínez
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 39 K. Gbamblé
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