🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - Orlando City

08/30/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.9
Total xG
3.1
Orlando City
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MUOC

Minnesota United

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.30
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
+0.18
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Tomás Chancalay on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)

Orlando City

Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+1.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Adrián Marín not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Tiago on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (12/7 games, last 21)

  • 3
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 4
    Orlando City: 71% of all goals in the second half (17 of 24, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

25%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Vulnerable away defense: Orlando City concedes an average of 3.78 goals per match when playing on the road
  • Improving attacking form: Minnesota United is scoring 2.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Strong mathematical prediction: The model projects a home win with a 53% probability and 1.90 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • Potent away attack: Orlando City scores a respectable average of 1.67 goals per away match
  • Squad depth issues for Orlando: Missing Adrián Marín and Tiago reduces the available starting lineup strength to 87%
Overview

Minnesota United hosts Orlando City at Allianz Field

Major League Soccer match on August 30, 2026, 12:30 AM

Mid-table clash between the 10th and 11th positions

Form

Minnesota United enters with a form of DDDLW

Orlando City displays a form of WLDLW

Both sides won their most recent league fixture

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Minnesota United averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.38 conceded

At home, Minnesota recorded 8 goals scored and 8 conceded in 6 matches

Orlando City averages 1.62 goals scored and 2.43 conceded

On the road, Orlando City concedes an average of 3.78 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 historical head-to-head encounter

The last match finished in a 3-2 victory for Minnesota United

Key Players

Kelvin Yeboah leads Minnesota with 10 goals scored

Joaquín Pereyra excels with 3 goals, 7 assists, and a 7.47 average rating

Anthony Markanich Jr. has contributed 5 goals and 3 assists from defense

Antoine Griezmann leads Orlando with 3 goals, 2 assists, and a 7.71 rating

Justin Ellis provides creative threat with 5 assists and a 7.11 rating

Eduard Atuesta controls the midfield with 3 assists and a 6.75 rating

Goalkeepers

Drake Callender has 5 clean sheets with a 6.90 average rating

Maxime Crépau has registered 2 clean sheets with a 6.79 average rating

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Allianz Field

The venue averages 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 games played at this stadium

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.