Match report →
Minnesota United – Orlando City3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
1.90
Total xG
3.06
Orlando City
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +1.07 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Tomás Chancalay on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Adrián Marín not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tiago on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Vulnerable away defense: Orlando City concedes an average of 3.78 goals per match when playing on the road
- Improving attacking form: Minnesota United is scoring 2.0 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.4
- Strong mathematical prediction: The model projects a home win with a 53% probability and 1.90 expected home goals
Risks
- Potent away attack: Orlando City scores a respectable average of 1.67 goals per away match
- Squad depth issues for Orlando: Missing Adrián Marín and Tiago reduces the available starting lineup strength to 87%
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United53%
Draw25%
Orlando City22%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw78%
Orlando City or draw47%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (12/7 games, last 21)
- Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Orlando City: 71% of all goals in the second half (17 of 24, last 12 games)
Lineups
Minnesota United 3-4-1-2 · Orlando City 4-4-2
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 3 K. Duncan
- 30 O. Géne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 9 K. Yeboah
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 24 G. Dorsey
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 22 J. Ellis
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 9 D. Dike
- 7 A. Griezmann
Substitutes
- 16 A. Jackson
- 1 A. Smir
- 2 D. Padelford
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 25 N. Triantis
- 29 M. Dieng
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 5 N. Romero
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 10 M. Ojeda
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 14 T. Spicer
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 23 H. Sarajian
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