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Major League Soccer

Cincinnati - SJ Earthquakes

08/01/2026, 11:30 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Cincinnati
2.1
Total xG
3.6
SJ Earthquakes
1.6
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

1:2

7%

3:1

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CINSE

Cincinnati

Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.58
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.4 season average)
+0.30
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
Gerardo Valenzuela not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

SJ Earthquakes

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.14
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
Jack Skahan on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes with Jack Jasinski: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Cincinnati: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (9 of 24)

  • 5
    SJ Earthquakes: 46% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

24%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Cincinnati is currently scoring more (3.4 goals) than their season average (2.41) while San Jose's attack is stalling (1.6 recently)
  • Tactical activity: Cincinnati averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to San Jose's 5.6
  • Model prediction: Home win is calculated at 48% probability with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Defensive weakness: Cincinnati concedes a high average of 2.47 goals per match this season
  • Visitor defensive decline: SJ Earthquakes' defensive average recently worsened to 2.4 goals conceded per game
  • Suspended defender: Key center-back Matt Miazga is missing due to suspension in Cincinnati's defense
Overview

Cincinnati (7th place, 23 points) hosts SJ Earthquakes (3rd place, 33 points)

Major League Soccer match on August 1, 2026, 11:30 PM

A crucial clash for playoff positions

Form

Cincinnati form: LDWWL (L = Loss, D = Draw, W = Win)

Last result was a 1-2 loss against Columbus Crew

SJ Earthquakes form: LLWLD

Last result was a 1-1 draw against LA Galaxy

Statistics

Cincinnati averages 2.41 goals scored and 2.47 goals conceded per match

At home their offensive average is 2.4 goals per game

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.06 goals while conceding 1.18

Away from home the visitors concede only 1.0 goal on average

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match in the last two years

Cincinnati won the last encounter 4-2 on June 16, 2024

Key Players

Evander leads the midfield with 10 goals and 8 assists for the home team

KĆ©vin Denkey has contributed 11 goals and 2 assists

For the visitors, Preston Judd has scored 11 goals, Timo Werner has 4 goals, and Ousseni Bouda has scored 5 goals

Goalkeepers

Roman Celentano has recorded 2 clean sheets for Cincinnati

SJ Earthquakes achieved 5 clean sheets in total, with Angus Gunn making 2 appearances this season

Influences

TQL Stadium averages a very high 6.2 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at Cincinnati's home venue

The game will be played on grass

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