šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire - Portland Timbers

08/16/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Chicago Fire
2.1
Total xG
3.3
Portland Timbers
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CFPT

Chicago Fire

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.29
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Jonathan Bamba on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

Portland Timbers

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02
Ariel Lassiter on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers with JosƩ Luis Caicedo Barrera: 3.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Portland Timbers: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Chicago Fire: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Chicago Fire: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Chicago Fire: 43% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

23%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Chicago concede 1.0 goals on average at home, while Portland concede 2.57 goals per away game
  • Tactical offensive power: Portland averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Goal probability: The model calculates a 64% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Portland currently score more goals (2.4) than their season average (1.8)
  • Soldier Field matches are highly high-scoring with a 100% BTTS rate in the analysed games
  • Jonathan Bamba is not nominated in Chicago Fire's squad
Overview

Chicago Fire (4th place, 29 points) host Portland Timbers (11th place, 24 points)

Major League Soccer match on August 16, 2026, 11:00 PM

The hosts aim to build on their strong home record at Soldier Field

Form

Chicago Fire in stable form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches (WWLLW)

Most recent match ended in a 2-1 home victory against Charlotte

Portland Timbers show a positive trend (LWDWW) with 3 wins and 2 consecutive victories lately

Statistics

Chicago Fire average 1.88 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded per match

At home, Chicago concede only 1.0 goals on average

Portland Timbers are defensively vulnerable away, conceding 2.57 goals per game

Key Players

Philip Zinckernagel impresses with 5 goals and 8 assists this season

Robert Lewandowski has already contributed 2 goals in 3 appearances

For Portland, Kevin Kelsy is in top form with 9 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Chris Brady started 17 matches in goal, achieving 6 clean sheets

James Pantemis has recorded only 1 clean sheet in 18 appearances

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Soldier Field

Venue stats indicate high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals per match

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 analysed matches at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.