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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - Cincinnati

09/20/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Cincinnati
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
HDCIN

Houston Dynamo

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.60
Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.54
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Full strength squad available

Cincinnati

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.55
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.09
A. Chirilă on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (14 points lost)

  • 3
    Houston Dynamo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 4
    Cincinnati: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

29%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Cincinnati's highly vulnerable away defense conceding an average of 4.38 goals per match
  • Houston Dynamo's strong home defense with only 0.67 goals conceded per game
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win with a probability of 47%
Risk Factors
  • Both teams currently show a negative form trend based on recent matches
  • Cincinnati's attack is stalling with only 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.17
  • Limited historical data due to a lack of previous head-to-head records
Overview

Houston Dynamo (2nd place, 43 points) host Cincinnati (10th place, 32 points)

Major League Soccer match on September 20, 2026, 2:30 AM at the Shell Energy Stadium

An important clash for the league standings

Form

Houston Dynamo form is LDDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses recently

Cincinnati travel with a form of WDLLD

The visitors also have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Houston Dynamo average 1.28 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per match

At home their defense is extremely solid with only 0.67 goals conceded per game

Cincinnati average a high 2.17 goals scored but concede 2.46 goals per match

On the road Cincinnati's defense is highly vulnerable conceding 4.38 goals per game

Key Players

Guilherme is Houston's top threat with 13 goals and 6 assists

Mateusz Bogusz contributes in midfield with 5 goals and 1 assist

Evander leads Cincinnati with 13 goals and 10 assists

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Bond has recorded 11 clean sheets for Houston Dynamo

Roman Celentano has kept 2 clean sheets for Cincinnati so far this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Shell Energy Stadium

Venue statistics show an average of 1.8 goals per match

Houston's home advantage is highlighted by conceding only 8 goals in 12 home games

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