Match report →
Houston Dynamo – Cincinnati2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Houston Dynamo
1.48
Total xG
2.46
Cincinnati
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Houston Dynamo | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.60 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.55 | |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.54 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| A. Chirilă on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Cincinnati's highly vulnerable away defense conceding an average of 4.38 goals per match
- Houston Dynamo's strong home defense with only 0.67 goals conceded per game
- The mathematical model predicts a home win with a probability of 47%
Risks
- Both teams currently show a negative form trend based on recent matches
- Cincinnati's attack is stalling with only 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.17
- Limited historical data due to a lack of previous head-to-head records
All probabilities
Result
Houston Dynamo47%
Draw29%
Cincinnati24%
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw76%
Cincinnati or draw53%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 6 of 10 games (14 points lost)
- Houston Dynamo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Cincinnati: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Houston Dynamo 4-4-2 · Cincinnati 3-4-3
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 5 L. Halter
- 21 F. Negri
- 11 L. Ennali
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 30 A. Bouzat
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 12 M. Robinson
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 11 S. Gidi
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 20 P. Bucha
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 9 A. Denkey
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
Substitutes
- 17 N. Markanich
- 23 D. McGuire
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 35 L. Erb
- 37 G. Rivera
- 2 A. Powell
- 13 E. Louro
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 16 T. Barlow
- 24 K. Smith
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 88 A. Chirila
- 14 K. Fletcher
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