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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Real Salt Lake

08/22/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Real Salt Lake
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
OCRSL

Orlando City

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.68
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Justin Ellis on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
AdriĂĄn MarĂ­n on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Braian Ojeda not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Real Salt Lake

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.47
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.22
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.10
Sergi Solans on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists)
Diego Luna on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Morgan Guilavogui on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Juan Manuel Sanabria on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Noel Caliskan on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Stijn Spierings on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
85% of goal output missing (only 7% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Orlando City with Braian Ojeda: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Real Salt Lake: Only 7% of the regular starting XI strength is available as key players like Sergi Solans (9 goals) and Diego Luna (5 goals) are missing
  • Attacking presence: Orlando City averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in their last 5 games
  • Away defense struggles: Real Salt Lake concede an average of 2.83 goals per away match
Risk Factors
  • High fatigue risk: Real Salt Lake have only 2 days of rest since their last match while Orlando City have only 3 days
  • Defensive instability of the hosts: Orlando City have already conceded 50 goals this season
  • Limited data availability due to missing historical head-to-head matches
Overview

Orlando City host Real Salt Lake at the Inter&Co Stadium

MLS match on August 22, 2026, 11:30 PM

Orlando City are currently in 11th place with 21 points

Real Salt Lake enter the match in 8th place with 28 points

Form

Orlando City show a form of WWLDL with 2 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Their recent form trend is positive averaging 1.8 goals per match compared to their 1.6 season average

Real Salt Lake are struggling with a form of LLDDL having failed to win in their last 5 games

The visitors' form trend is negative with their goal production dropping to 1.4 goals per match

Statistics

Orlando City score 1.6 goals on average but concede a high average of 2.5 goals per match

Real Salt Lake average 1.74 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded this season

The visitors struggle defensively on the road conceding 2.83 goals per away game

Matches played at the Inter&Co Stadium average 2.4 goals per game

Key Players

Antoine Griezmann is the standout attacker for the hosts with a 7.53 rating and 3 goal involvements

IvĂĄn Angulo has contributed 1 goal and 4 assists so far this season

Aiden Hezarkhani remains a threat for Real Salt Lake with 2 goals scored this season

Goalkeepers

Maxime Crépeau is in goal for Orlando City with a season rating of 6.80

Mason Stajduhar makes his first appearance of the season for Real Salt Lake

Orlando City have kept only 2 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

Orlando City play on natural grass at their home stadium

The hosts concede significantly fewer goals at home with a 1.45 average compared to 3.78 away from home

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