Major League Soccer
New York RB - DC United
04/22/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.8
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
New York RB
DC United
League
The Lab
- 1Tai Baribo: 2 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)
- 2New York RB: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3New York RB with Omar Valencia: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4New York RB: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5DC United with Nikola Markovic: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
28%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Mathematical prediction: New York RB is slightly favored with a 43% win probability
- Offensive trend: New York RB is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
- DC United's offensive weakness: Only an average of 0.5 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
- DC United's tactical approach: Counter-oriented with an average of only 2.6 shots on target in the last 5 games
- New York RB's defense: Concedes an average of 2.38 goals per game this season
- High draw probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a draw with 28% probability
Overview
New York RB (8th place, 11 points) host DC United (9th place, 8 points) at the Red Bull Arena. This Major League Soccer match will take place on April 22, 2026, 11:30 PM. The mathematical analysis slightly favors New York RB with a 43% probability of winning.
Form
New York RB's form in their last five matches is DLWDL, with one win, two draws, and two losses. Their last result was a loss. DC United's form in their last five matches is WDLLD, also with one win, two draws, and two losses. Their last game ended in a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
New York RB scores an average of 1.5 goals per game and concedes 2.38 goals. At home, they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded. DC United averages 0.5 goals scored per game and concedes 1.13 goals. Away from home, DC United also scores 0.5 goals and concedes 0.75 goals. The Red Bull Arena sees an average of 3.8 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 80%.
Head-to-Head
In four head-to-head matches, New York RB secured two wins, DC United one win, and there was one draw. New York RB scored a total of 9 goals compared to DC United's 5 goals. The last encounter on May 24, 2025, saw New York RB win away with a 2-0 scoreline. New York RB has been the more dominant side in recent meetings.
Key Players
For New York RB, Julian Hall (5 goals, 2 assists), Adri Mehmeti (1 goal, 2 assists), and Emil Forsberg (1 goal, 1 assist) stand out. Julian Hall shows a slightly declining form trend. For DC United, Tai Baribo (3 goals) and Matti Peltola (1 goal) are key scorers, both with a declining form trend. Peglow has contributed 1 assist.
Goalkeepers
New York RB's goalkeeper, Ethan Horvath, has kept one clean sheet this season. Sean Johnson of DC United, on the other hand, has recorded three clean sheets this season.
Influences
New York RB scores an average of 1.67 goals at home and concedes 1.67 goals. DC United, however, only scores an average of 0.5 goals away and concedes 0.75 goals. The Red Bull Arena is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.8 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 80% of games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 80%. The playing surface is grass.