Match report →
San Diego – Philadelphia Union0 : 5
Why the model thinks so
San Diego
1.70
Total xG
3.44
Philadelphia Union
1.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Diego | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +0.55 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Gabriel Pirani on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Philadelphia Union averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Form trend: Philadelphia Union is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 3 consecutive wins
- Offensive power: Philadelphia Union currently scores more frequently (2.6) than their season average (1.9)
Risks
- Defensive weakness away: Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away match
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head history
- San Diego remains offensively dangerous, averaging 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
San Diego37%
Draw25%
Philadelphia Union38%
Double chance
San Diego or draw62%
Philadelphia Union or draw63%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
0:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Neil Pierre: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
San Diego 4-3-3 · Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
San Diego
- 18 D. Ferree
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 26 M. Duah
- 32 I. Murphy
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 8 O. Valakari
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 99 M. Achouri
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 9 B. Damiani
- 10 M. Iloski
Substitutes
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 23 S. Vines
- 13 P. Sisniega Fink
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 15 P. Soma
- 20 A. Godoy
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 5 J. Sery
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 33 Q. Sullivan
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →