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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Houston Dynamo

04/18/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.6
Total xG
3.0
Houston Dynamo
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OCHD

Orlando City

Defensive weakness (3.4 conceded vs 2 league avg)
+1.47
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.76
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.08
Marco Paơalić on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 0.9 goals/match)

Houston Dynamo

Defensive strength (2.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+1.47
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.78
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.02
Jack McGlynn  not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Orlando City: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 2
    Orlando City with Tahir Reid-Brown: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Houston Dynamo: scored only after the break in 3 of 6 games

  • 4
    Houston Dynamo: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Guilherme: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

27%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees a home win with 40% probability
  • Form crisis: Houston Dynamo recently lost three consecutive games, the longest negative streak of both teams
  • Offensive weakness: Orlando City's goal production is stagnant with an average of 0.6 goals in recent games, while Houston Dynamo scores consistently (~1.6 goals per game)
Risk Factors
  • Limited offensive data for Orlando City: Marco PaĆĄalić (2G/0A) is not in the lineup
  • Orlando City's low home goal production: Only 0.83 home goals per game
  • Houston Dynamo's high away goals conceded: An average of 3.33 goals conceded per away game
Overview

Orlando City (14th place, 4 points) host Houston Dynamo (14th place, 6 points) in Major League Soccer

The match will take place on April 18, 2026, 11:30 PM

Both teams are at the bottom of the table and are looking to improve their standing

Form

Orlando City's form is LWLLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in their last 5 matches

Their last result was a 1-1 away draw against Columbus Crew

Houston Dynamo shows a form of LWLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses) in their last 5 games

The visitors lost their last away match 2-6 against Colorado Rapids and have three consecutive losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Orlando City scored an average of 0.86 goals per game and conceded 3.43 goals per game this season

At home, these values are 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per home game

Houston Dynamo averages 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 goals conceded per game

Away from home, they scored 1.67 goals and conceded 3.33 goals per away game

Orlando City had BTTS in 4 out of 7 games, Houston Dynamo in 4 out of 6 games

For Orlando City, 6 out of 7 games ended with over 2.5 goals, for Houston Dynamo 4 out of 6 games

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches between these teams are listed in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Orlando City, MartĂ­n Ojeda (2 goals, 0 assists, AvgRating 7.04), Tiago (1 goal, 1 assist, AvgRating 6.76) and IvĂĄn Angulo (0 goals, 2 assists, AvgRating 6.73) are key players

MartĂ­n Ojeda recorded 1 goal and 0 assists in the last 5 games

Tiago contributed 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

IvĂĄn Angulo provided 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Houston Dynamo, Guilherme (5 goals, 4 assists, AvgRating 8.54), Mateusz Bogusz (1 goal, 1 assist, AvgRating 6.96) and Lawrence Ennali (2 goals, 0 assists, AvgRating 6.72) stand out

Guilherme scored 3 goals and 4 assists in the last 5 games

Mateusz Bogusz achieved 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Lawrence Ennali scored 2 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Orlando City's goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, has not kept a clean sheet in 6 season appearances

Jonathan Bond, Houston Dynamo's goalkeeper, also has no clean sheets in 6 season appearances

Influences

Orlando City scores an average of 0.83 home goals and concedes 1.17 home goals

Houston Dynamo scores 1.67 goals and concedes 3.33 goals per away game

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