Match report ā
New York RB ā Philadelphia Union1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
New York RB
1.84
Total xG
3.55
Philadelphia Union
1.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York RB | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.54 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ā0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | ā0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Mijahir JimƩnez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form gap: Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in 5 matches while New York RB struggle
- Offensive trend: Philadelphia Union are currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.6
- Head-to-head record: Philadelphia Union won 3 of the last 5 direct duels against New York RB
Risks
- Away defensive struggles: Philadelphia Union concede an average of 2.08 goals per away game
- Defensive vulnerability: New York RB concede 2.05 goals per game on average this season and have kept only 1 clean sheet
All probabilities
Result
New York RB40%
Draw24%
Philadelphia Union35%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Double chance
New York RB or draw65%
Philadelphia Union or draw60%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
1:3
4%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York RB: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- New York RB: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)
- New York RB: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)
Lineups
New York RB 4-2-3-1 Ā· Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 2 J. Che
- 14 J. BazƔn Medina
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 7 C. Cowell
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
- 16 J. Hall
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. LukiÄ
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 10 M. Iloski
- 9 B. Damiani
Substitutes
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 5 O. Valencia Arauz
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 26 T. Parker
- 37 M. Sofo
- 17 C. Harper
- 91 M. JimƩnez Murillo
- 92 D. Nelich
- 5 J. Sery
- 2 G. MartĆnez Turner
- 8 J. Bueno AƱez
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 33 Q. Sullivan
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