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New York RB – San Diego4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
New York RB
1.61
Total xG
3.20
San Diego
1.59
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York RB | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.24 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Julian Hall not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ronald Donkor not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Adri Mehmeti not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Onni Valakari not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Elias Achouri not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Balanced probability: Model calculations give New York RB 37% and San Diego 37% win chances
- High goal expectation: Both teams to score is calculated at 65%, with Over 2.5 goals at 62%
- Offensive power of San Diego: Anders Dreyer (11 goals, 11 assists) and Marcus Ingvartsen (12 goals) lead the visitors' attack
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: San Diego concedes an average of 2.56 goals per away match
- Goal slump for New York RB: The home team averaged only 0.5 goals per match in recent games
- High recent goals conceded: San Diego averaged 2.8 goals conceded in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
New York RB37%
Draw26%
San Diego37%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Double chance
New York RB or draw63%
San Diego or draw63%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
4:1
Final score
Lineups
New York RB 4-3-3 · San Diego 4-3-3
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 2 J. Che
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 59 D. Padelford
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 37 M. Sofo
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
- 16 J. Hall
- 7 C. Cowell
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 26 M. Duah
- 32 I. Murphy
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 20 A. Godoy
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 99 M. Achouri
Substitutes
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 6 R. Voloder
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 66 T. Rosborough
- 70 A. Rojas Maroto
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 26 T. Parker
- 80 N. Worth
- 60 S. Kone
- 45 C. Faello
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 8 O. Valakari
- 13 P. Sisniega Fink
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 15 P. Soma
- 17 O. Søe
- 18 D. Ferree
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 77 A. Mighten
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 16 M. Alstrup
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