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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - Atlanta United

09/05/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
2.3
Total xG
3.5
Atlanta United
1.2
Most Likely Scores

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
IMAU

Inter Miami

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.68
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available

Atlanta United

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.12
FafĂ  Picault on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Inter Miami: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Atlanta United: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

21%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Home strength and prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 63% home win probability and expects 2.34 goals for Inter Miami
  • Dominant playstyle: Inter Miami averaged 56.8% possession and 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Squad impact: Atlanta United is missing the unselected FafĂą Picault (3 goals, 2 assists), lowering their starting lineup strength to 87%
Risk Factors
  • Defensive instability: Inter Miami concedes an average of 1.86 goals per game this season
  • Away struggles: Atlanta United concedes a heavy average of 2.22 goals per away match
Overview

Inter Miami (2nd place, 42 points) host Atlanta United (13th place, 21 points) at Chase Stadium

MLS match on September 5, 2026, 11:30 PM

Clear favorites role for the home side

Form

Inter Miami form: DLDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Atlanta United form: LWWWL

Inter Miami ended their recent winless run with a massive 7-1 home victory against CF Montréal

Atlanta United lost 0-2 to Charlotte in their last game after three consecutive wins

Statistics

Inter Miami average 2.55 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded per match

Atlanta United average 1.14 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game

Atlanta struggle heavily on the road, conceding an average of 2.22 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches

3 wins for Inter Miami, 2 wins for Atlanta United

The last encounter ended in a clear 4-0 home win for Inter Miami on October 11, 2025

Key Players

Lionel Messi with 17 goals and 10 assists this season

Luis SuĂĄrez has scored 11 goals and provided 4 assists

GermĂĄn Berterame stands at 7 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Dayne St. Clair kept 4 clean sheets this season for Inter Miami

Lucas Hoyos recorded 1 clean sheet for Atlanta United

Influences

Chase Stadium is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.6 total goals

All of the last 5 venue matches saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals

The match will be played on a grass surface

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