🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - Sporting KC

04/04/2026, 08:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
2.0
Total xG
2.9
Sporting KC
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RSLSK

Real Salt Lake

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.55
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Juan Manuel Sanabria on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Aiden Hezarkhani not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)

Sporting KC

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+1.09
Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.21
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.56
+0.56
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a home win at 61%
  • Real Salt Lake shows better current form with 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 league games
  • Real Salt Lake dominates the head-to-head encounters with 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 matches
Risk Factors
  • Sporting KC averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Sporting KC concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Real Salt Lake has only 88% of their usual goal production available without Juan Manuel Sanabria and Aiden Hezarkhani
Overview

Real Salt Lake (6th place, 10 points) hosts Sporting KC (15th place, 4 points) in Major League Soccer on April 4, 2026, 10:30 PM

Real Salt Lake aims to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table

Sporting KC is battling relegation and urgently needs points

Form

Real Salt Lake's form across all competitions is LWWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Their last result was a draw

Sporting KC shows the form LDLWL

They achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Their last result was a loss

Statistics

Real Salt Lake averages 1.8 goals scored per game and concedes 1.4 goals

In home games, Real Salt Lake averages 2 goals scored and 1 goal conceded

They have 0 clean sheets

Real Salt Lake had both teams score in 4 games and over 2.5 goals in 4 games

Sporting KC averages 1.0 goals scored per game and concedes 2.2 goals

In away games, Sporting KC averages 1 goal scored and 2 goals conceded

They have 0 clean sheets

Sporting KC had both teams score in 3 games and over 2.5 goals in 4 games

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Real Salt Lake dominated with 3 wins

Sporting KC has not won a single direct encounter, with 1 draw

Real Salt Lake scored a total of 8 goals, Sporting KC 5 goals

Real Salt Lake won the last meeting 2-1 on September 14, 2025

The recent record shows clear dominance for the home team

Key Players

For Real Salt Lake, Morgan Guilavogui (0 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.57 rating), Sergi Solans (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.12 rating), and Zavier Gozo (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 7.04 rating) are crucial

All three players show stable form

For Sporting KC, Dejan Joveljić (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.95 rating), Lasse Berg Johnsen (1 goal, 0 assists, avg 7.31 rating), and Manu García (0 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.2 rating) are important players

Joveljić and Johnsen show a declining form, while García is stable

Goalkeepers

Real Salt Lake's goalkeeper, Rafael Cabral, has recorded 0 clean sheets in 5 appearances

Sporting KC's goalkeeper, John Pulskamp, has also recorded 0 clean sheets in 5 appearances

Influences

Real Salt Lake averages 2 home goals scored and 1 home goal conceded

Sporting KC concedes an average of 2 away goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.