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Major League Soccer

Vancouver Whitecaps - Portland Timbers

04/05/2026, 02:30 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.2
Total xG
3.1
Portland Timbers
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
VWPT

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-1.55
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.11
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
Emmanuel Sabbi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)

Portland Timbers

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.12
Gage Guerra on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.61
+0.61
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

22%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

35%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Home Strength: Vancouver Whitecaps are offensively dominant with 2.5 goals scored on average and concede only 0.25 goals at home
  • Weak Away Defense: Portland Timbers concede an average of 5.0 goals per away game
  • Mathematical Prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a 65% home win for Vancouver
Risk Factors
  • Injuries on both teams may impact match performance
  • Vancouver Whitecaps are coming off a 0-1 loss, which ended their winning streak
Overview

Vancouver Whitecaps (3rd place, 12 points) host Portland Timbers (14th place, 4 points) in Major League Soccer

The match will take place on April 5, 2026, 4:30 AM

The Whitecaps aim to continue their strong season, while the Timbers try to escape the relegation zone

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Vancouver Whitecaps show strong form with WWWWL across all competitions

They achieved 4 wins and 0 draws with 1 loss

The last game ended in a 0-1 loss against SJ Earthquakes

Portland Timbers have weaker form with WLLLD across all competitions

They recorded 1 win and 1 draw with 3 losses

The Timbers' last game was a 1-1 draw against LA Galaxy

Statistics

Vancouver Whitecaps are offensively strong with an average of 2.8 goals per game and defensively solid with only 0.4 goals conceded per game

At home, they score an average of 2.5 goals and concede only 0.25 goals

Portland Timbers score an average of 1.4 goals per game and concede an average of 2.4 goals

Away from home, the Timbers have a weak defense, conceding an average of 5.0 goals per away game

For the Whitecaps, there were over 2.5 goals in 3 games and both teams scored in 1 game

For the Timbers, there were over 2.5 goals in 3 games and both teams scored in 4 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 direct encounters between the two teams, Vancouver Whitecaps dominate

They won 3 games, while there were 0 wins for Portland and 2 draws

The Whitecaps scored a total of 15 goals, the Timbers 4 goals

The last meeting on March 8, 2026, ended with a 4-1 victory for Vancouver Whitecaps

Key Players

For Vancouver Whitecaps, Brian White (5 goals), Sebastian Berhalter (2 goals, 3 assists), and Thomas MĆ¼ller (2 goals) are key offensive players

For Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde (2 goals), Antony (1 goal, 1 assist), and Kevin Kelsy (1 assist) are the top performers

Goalkeepers

Yohei Takaoka is the goalkeeper for Vancouver Whitecaps and recorded 3 clean sheets in 5 season appearances

James Pantemis is the goalkeeper for Portland Timbers and achieved 0 clean sheets in 5 season appearances

Influences

Vancouver Whitecaps have a strong home advantage

They scored an average of 2.5 goals at home and conceded only 0.25 goals per home game

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