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Major League Soccer

New York City - St. Louis City

04/04/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
New York City
1.7
Total xG
2.7
St. Louis City
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
NYCSLC

New York City

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.78
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.77
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

St. Louis City

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.13
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
Attack strength (1.32x league average)
+0.02
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.56
+0.56
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • New York City is favored for a home win with a 51% probability
  • New York City shows a significantly stronger offense with 2.6 goals per game compared to St. Louis City's 0.8 goals per game
  • New York City is in better form with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches, compared to St. Louis City's 1 win and 1 draw
Overview

New York City (2nd place, 10 points) hosts St. Louis City (13th place, 4 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 4, 2026, 7:30 PM. New York City aims to solidify its leading position in the table.

Form

New York City's form across all competitions is DWWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss).

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches.

Their last outing resulted in a loss.

St. Louis City's form across all competitions is DLLLW.

The team achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches.

Their last outing resulted in a win.

Statistics

New York City averages 2.6 goals scored per game and concedes 1.2 goals on average this season.

At home, New York City averages 2.5 goals scored and concedes 1.0 goals.

New York City has seen both teams score in 4 matches and over 2.5 goals in 4 matches.

St. Louis City averages 0.8 goals scored per game and concedes 1.4 goals on average this season.

St. Louis City has seen both teams score in 2 matches and over 2.5 goals in 1 match.

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between these teams.

St. Louis City won the only encounter 2-0 on March 3, 2024.

New York City did not score any goals in this single match, while St. Louis City scored 2 goals.

Key Players

For New York City, NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez Mercau (5 goals, 0 assists), Maxi Moralez (1 goal, 4 assists), and AgustĂ­n Ojeda (2 goals, 1 assist) are key players.

NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez Mercau shows strong form with an average rating of 8.02.

For St. Louis City, Marcel Hartel (2 goals, 0 assists), Chris Durkin (1 goal, 0 assists), and Simon Becher (1 goal, 1 assist) are the top performers.

Marcel Hartel stands out with an average rating of 7.70.

Goalkeepers

New York City's goalkeeper, Matt Freese, has kept 1 clean sheet this season with an an average rating of 6.83.

St. Louis City's goalkeeper, Roman BĂŒrki, has kept 0 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.74.

Influences

New York City demonstrates strong offensive performance at home with an average of 2.5 goals scored and only 1.0 goal conceded.

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