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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - San Diego

04/05/2026, 02:30 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
1.9
Total xG
3.1
San Diego
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SESD

SJ Earthquakes

Defensive strength (0.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-1.75
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
-0.23
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
Strong home record (2.5 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

San Diego

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Attack strength (1.39x league average)
-0.25
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Amahl Pellegrino on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.61
+0.61
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

25%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • SJ Earthquakes' defensive strength: The home team conceded only 1 goal in 5 league games, an average of 0.2 per match
  • San Diego's offense: The away team scores an average of 2.6 goals per game and presents a constant threat
  • Mathematical prediction: The pipeline analysis favors SJ Earthquakes with a home win probability of 52%
Risk Factors
  • San Diego's strong offense: The away team scores an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • San Diego's resilience: The away team managed to draw their last two games and is currently unbeaten
  • SJ Earthquakes' last home loss: The home team recently lost a home game 0-1 against Seattle Sounders
Overview

SJ Earthquakes (4th place, 12 points) host San Diego (5th place, 11 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 5, 2026, 3:30 AM. Both teams are in the upper half of the table, vying for a strong position in the league.

Form

SJ Earthquakes show strong form with WWWLW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games. Their last result was a win. San Diego is also in good shape with WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) and has remained unbeaten in their last two matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 1.4 goals per game and concede only 0.2 goals. At home, they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded. San Diego is offensively strong with an average of 2.6 goals per game but concedes 1.0 goals. Away from home, they score 2.0 goals and concede 1.5 goals. SJ Earthquakes recorded 4 clean sheets, San Diego 3.

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head encounters, SJ Earthquakes and San Diego each secured one win, with no draws. The goal difference is even at 2:2. SJ Earthquakes won the last match 1:0 on September 28, 2025.

Key Players

For SJ Earthquakes, key players include Daniel Munie (2 goals, 0 assists), Ousseni Bouda (2 goals, 0 assists), and Preston Judd (2 goals, 0 assists). For San Diego, top performers are Marcus Ingvartsen (4 goals, 2 assists), Anders Dreyer (3 goals, 3 assists), and Onni Valakari (3 goals, 1 assist). Not nominated: Amahl Pellegrino (1G/1A).

Goalkeepers

The goalkeeper for SJ Earthquakes, Daniel, has an average rating of 7.34. The team recorded 4 clean sheets this season. For San Diego, Duran Ferree is in goal with an average rating of 7.17. San Diego kept a clean sheet in 3 matches.

Influences

SJ Earthquakes show defensive stability at home, conceding only an average of 0.25 home goals per game. San Diego scores an average of 2.0 goals per away game, but concedes 1.5 away goals.

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