Major League Soccer
SJ Earthquakes - San Diego
04/05/2026, 02:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.1
1.2
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
SJ Earthquakes
San Diego
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
25%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- SJ Earthquakes' defensive strength: The home team conceded only 1 goal in 5 league games, an average of 0.2 per match
- San Diego's offense: The away team scores an average of 2.6 goals per game and presents a constant threat
- Mathematical prediction: The pipeline analysis favors SJ Earthquakes with a home win probability of 52%
Risk Factors
- San Diego's strong offense: The away team scores an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- San Diego's resilience: The away team managed to draw their last two games and is currently unbeaten
- SJ Earthquakes' last home loss: The home team recently lost a home game 0-1 against Seattle Sounders
Overview
SJ Earthquakes (4th place, 12 points) host San Diego (5th place, 11 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 5, 2026, 3:30 AM. Both teams are in the upper half of the table, vying for a strong position in the league.
Form
SJ Earthquakes show strong form with WWWLW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games. Their last result was a win. San Diego is also in good shape with WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) and has remained unbeaten in their last two matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
SJ Earthquakes score an average of 1.4 goals per game and concede only 0.2 goals. At home, they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded. San Diego is offensively strong with an average of 2.6 goals per game but concedes 1.0 goals. Away from home, they score 2.0 goals and concede 1.5 goals. SJ Earthquakes recorded 4 clean sheets, San Diego 3.
Head-to-Head
In the 2 previous head-to-head encounters, SJ Earthquakes and San Diego each secured one win, with no draws. The goal difference is even at 2:2. SJ Earthquakes won the last match 1:0 on September 28, 2025.
Key Players
For SJ Earthquakes, key players include Daniel Munie (2 goals, 0 assists), Ousseni Bouda (2 goals, 0 assists), and Preston Judd (2 goals, 0 assists). For San Diego, top performers are Marcus Ingvartsen (4 goals, 2 assists), Anders Dreyer (3 goals, 3 assists), and Onni Valakari (3 goals, 1 assist). Not nominated: Amahl Pellegrino (1G/1A).
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper for SJ Earthquakes, Daniel, has an average rating of 7.34. The team recorded 4 clean sheets this season. For San Diego, Duran Ferree is in goal with an average rating of 7.17. San Diego kept a clean sheet in 3 matches.
Influences
SJ Earthquakes show defensive stability at home, conceding only an average of 0.25 home goals per game. San Diego scores an average of 2.0 goals per away game, but concedes 1.5 away goals.