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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - New York City

04/25/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.7
Total xG
3.1
New York City
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CMNYC

CF Montréal

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Wikelman José Carmona Torres not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

New York City

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Hannes Wolf on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.74
+0.74
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    CF Montréal: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    CF Montréal with Luca Petrasso: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    New York City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    CF Montréal: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

26%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • CF Montréal's improved attacking form, averaging 1.8 goals recently compared to 1.5 for the season
  • The historical home dominance of CF Montréal with 3 wins in 4 head-to-head matches against New York City
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 41% probability
Risk Factors
  • New York City has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • CF Montréal's high season average of 2.5 goals conceded per game
  • New York City's recent defensive struggles, with an average of 2.4 goals conceded in current form
Overview

CF Montréal (13th place, 6 points) hosts New York City (7th place, 12 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 25, 2026, 6:30 PM. Montréal aims to close the gap to the mid-table, while New York City looks to defend its upper-half position.

Form

CF Montréal's form in the last 5 games is LLLLW, which corresponds to 1 win and 4 losses. Their last result was a win. New York City's form is LDLLD, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

CF Montréal averages 1.5 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 2.5 goals. At home, the average is 1.67 goals scored and 1 goal conceded. New York City averages 2.11 goals scored per game and concedes 1.67 goals. Away, they averaged 3 goals scored and conceded 4 goals, though in only one game. CF Montréal's 8 season games all featured over 2.5 goals. New York City's 6 of 9 games had over 2.5 goals. Both teams scored in 4 of Montréal's games and 7 of New York City's games.

Head-to-Head

In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, CF Montréal has been dominant with 3 wins compared to 1 win for New York City. Montréal scored 4 goals and conceded 2. The last encounter was a 1:0 victory for CF Montréal on June 28, 2025. CF Montréal has been the more dominant team in recent meetings.

Key Players

For CF Montréal, Prince Owusu is a key player with 5 goals and 4 assists in 8 season appearances (average rating 7.35), his form is rising. Iván Jaime recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 7 season appearances (average rating 7.02), his form is stable. Matty Longstaff (8 season appearances) scored 1 goal and has an average rating of 6.8, his form is stable. For New York City, Nicolás Fernández Mercau scored 8 goals in 9 season appearances (average rating 7.98), his form is stable. Maxi Moralez has 1 goal and 6 assists in 9 appearances (average rating 7.48), his form is stable. Agustín Ojeda (9 season appearances) scored 3 goals and 2 assists (average rating 6.93), his form is stable.

Goalkeepers

CF Montréal has Thomas Gillier in goal. New York City's goalkeeper is Matt Freese, who has an average rating of 6.84 in 9 season appearances. CF Montréal kept 1 clean sheet this season, New York City also 1 clean sheet.

Influences

CF Montréal scored an average of 1.67 goals at home and conceded 1 goal. New York City conceded an average of 4 goals per away game in only one match. There is no information available regarding weather-related or venue-specific influences.

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