Match report →
Sporting KC – Vancouver Whitecaps0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
0.99
Total xG
2.73
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −1.03 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Dejan Joveljić on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jake Davis not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 38% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Emmanuel Sabbi on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Cheikh Sabaly on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jeevan Badwal on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Vancouver won all of the last 5 head-to-head matches with a goal difference of 12:2
- Tactical superiority: Vancouver averaged 5.4 shots on target per match with 62.4% possession in recent games
- Defensive vulnerability: Sporting KC concedes an average of 2.43 goals per match and has kept 0 clean sheets this season
Risks
- Offensive struggles for the hosts: Sporting KC recently played counter-oriented football with an average of only 2.4 shots on target per match
- Away defense variance: Vancouver concedes an average of 1.5 goals on the road compared to just 0.5 in home games
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC20%
Draw27%
Vancouver Whitecaps54%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw46%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw80%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 3 M. Castillo Mosquera
- 5 O. Blorian
- 18 E. Karic
- 7 O. Capemba
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 14 C. Harris
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 19 T. Calheira
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 28 T. Johnson
- 8 O. Larraz
- 20 A. Cubas
- 25 R. Gauld
- 13 T. Müller
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 15 J. Miller
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 28 W. Meyer
- 57 D. Borges da Silva
- 99 J. Reid
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 59 J. Badwal
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 26 J. Ngando Mbende
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 3 S. Adekugbe
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