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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - Vancouver Whitecaps

05/10/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
1.8
Total xG
3.4
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
SEVW

SJ Earthquakes

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.27
Attack strength (1.67x league average)
-0.43
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.25
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.4 season average)
+0.25
Timo Werner not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Niko Tsakiris not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Jack Skahan on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Strong home record (3.2 vs 2.4 goals/match)

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.69
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Attack strength (2.33x league average)
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Thomas MĆ¼ller on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Emmanuel Sabbi on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vancouver Whitecaps: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes with Dave Romney: 6.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Vancouver Whitecaps with AndrƩs Cubas: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

25%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: A home win for SJ Earthquakes is calculated with 41% probability, while a draw stands at 25%
  • Offensive Strength of Both Teams: SJ Earthquakes currently score more frequently (3.2 goals) than their season average (2.4 goals), while Vancouver Whitecaps score consistently (~2.5 goals per game)
  • Home Advantage SJ Earthquakes: The team averages 2.17 goals scored at home and concedes only 0.33 goals per game
Overview

SJ Earthquakes (1st place, 28 points) host Vancouver Whitecaps (2nd place, 25 points) in Major League Soccer on May 10, 2026, 3:30 AM

This is a top-of-the-table clash between two leading teams, with the Earthquakes looking to extend their lead

Form

SJ Earthquakes show excellent form with "WWWWD" in their last five matches, equating to 4 wins and 1 draw

Their last game ended in a draw

Vancouver Whitecaps are also in superb condition with "WWWWD" from their last five fixtures, meaning 4 wins and 1 draw

Their most recent result was also a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes average 2.36 goals scored per game and concede 0.64 goals per game

At home, they are very strong with an average of 2.17 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded

Vancouver Whitecaps have a season average of 2.78 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded per game

In away games (based on 1 match), they scored 4.0 goals and conceded 1.0 goals

SJ Earthquakes kept 5 clean sheets, and Vancouver Whitecaps also managed 5 clean sheets

For SJ Earthquakes, over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches, and for Vancouver Whitecaps, in 6 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 direct Major League Soccer encounters, SJ Earthquakes secured 2 wins and Vancouver Whitecaps claimed 3 wins

SJ Earthquakes scored 4 goals in these matches, while Vancouver Whitecaps netted 9 goals

The most recent clash on March 22, 2026, resulted in a 1-0 victory for SJ Earthquakes

Vancouver Whitecaps have been the dominant team in recent head-to-head matchups

Key Players

For SJ Earthquakes, Preston Judd with 7 goals and 2 assists, and Ousseni Bouda with 5 goals and 1 assist, are key attacking players

Daniel Munie contributes to the team's performance with 2 goals and 1 assist

For Vancouver Whitecaps, Brian White is the top scorer with 8 goals

Sebastian Berhalter shines with 3 goals and 4 assists, while MathĆ­as Laborda has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Daniel is the goalkeeper for SJ Earthquakes and has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Yohei Takaoka guards the goal for Vancouver Whitecaps and also recorded 5 clean sheets

Influences

SJ Earthquakes demonstrate strong home performance with an average of 2.17 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game

Vancouver Whitecaps scored 4.0 goals and conceded 1.0 goals in their single away game of the season

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