Major League Soccer
Minnesota United - Austin
05/10/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.2
3.1
1.0
2:0
10%1:1
10%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Minnesota United
Austin
League
The Lab
- 1Austin: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 2Minnesota United with NicolĂĄs Romero: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Austin with Brendan Hines-Ike: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 4.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Minnesota United: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 5Austin: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
64%
Draw
22%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
36%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a 64% home win probability for Minnesota United
- Home strength vs. Away weakness: Minnesota United concedes only an average of 0.5 goals at home, while Austin concedes 3.0 goals away
- Current form: Minnesota United is in strong form with 4 wins in their last 5 games, while Austin has a mixed record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Risk Factors
- Austin concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Austin's goal production is 81% available (activeGoalsShare), indicating a missing 19% of seasonal goal threat
Overview
Minnesota United (5th place, 20 points) host Austin (13th place, 13 points) in Major League Soccer. The match will take place on May 10, 2026, 7:00 PM. Minnesota United aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Austin seeks to move away from the lower regions.
Form
Minnesota United's current form across all competitions is WWWLW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). Their last result was a 3-2 away win against Columbus Crew. Austin's form across all competitions is LDLWW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Austin won their last match against St. Louis City 2-0. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Minnesota United scored an average of 1.27 goals per game this season and conceded 1.45 goals. Austin averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game. Minnesota kept 4 clean sheets, and Austin also recorded 4 clean sheets. In home games, Minnesota United scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 0.5 goals. Austin conceded an average of 3.0 goals in away games and scored 1.6 goals. For Minnesota, over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches, and for Austin, in 7 matches. Both teams scored in 5 of Minnesota's matches and in 7 of Austin's matches. Minnesota United is currently scoring more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.4). Austin is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.6).
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Minnesota United secured 2 wins, Austin achieved 1 win, and 2 matches ended in a draw. Minnesota United scored 8 goals, while Austin scored 5 goals. The last encounter on February 22, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw. Minnesota United has shown dominance in recent meetings.
Key Players
For Minnesota United, Kelvin Yeboah (7 goals), TomĂĄs Chancalay (1 goal, 4 assists, rising form trend), and Anthony Markanich Jr. (3 goals, 2 assists, rising form trend) are crucial. For Austin, Facundo Torres (1 goal, 4 assists), Myrto Uzuni (4 goals, 1 assist, rising form trend), and Christian Ramirez (3 goals, 1 assist) stand out.
Goalkeepers
Minnesota United's goalkeeper, Drake Callender , has played 11 games and kept 4 clean sheets. Brad Stuver , Austin's goalkeeper, also played 11 games and recorded 4 clean sheets.
Influences
Minnesota United shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per home game. Austin, on the other hand, concedes an average of 3.0 goals away from home.