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Major League Soccer

Charlotte - New York City

05/13/2026, 11:15 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Charlotte
1.7
Total xG
3.0
New York City
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CHANYC

Charlotte

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.13
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Ashley Westwood not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Harry Toffolo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

New York City

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.21
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Charlotte: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Charlotte with Liel Abada: 7.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    New York City with Talles Magno: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Charlotte: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Charlotte: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Charlotte's strong home defense (0.88 goals conceded) meets New York City's weak away defense (2.5 goals conceded)
  • Contrasting tactical approaches: Charlotte's recent counter-oriented play (45% possession) against New York City's ball-dominant style (60% possession)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 47% chance of a home win for Charlotte
Risk Factors
  • New York City has had only 3 days since their last match, indicating potential fatigue
  • New York City concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game
Overview

Charlotte (8th place, 15 points) hosts New York City (7th place, 15 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The match takes place on May 14, 2026, 12:15 AM. Both teams are tied on points in the standings and aim to improve their position

Form

Charlotte's form in the last five games is WLLLD

New York City's form in the last five games is LDLLW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Charlotte has achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

New York City has achieved 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

Statistics

Charlotte scores an average of 1.67 goals per game and concedes 1.75 goals per game this season

At home, Charlotte's defense is stronger, conceding an average of 0.88 goals per game while scoring 1.75

9 out of 12 games saw over 2.5 goals

Both teams scored in 9 out of 12 games

Charlotte's goal production has slowed recently (1.4 goals) compared to their season average (1.8 goals)

New York City scores an average of 1.83 goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals per game this season

In away matches, New York City concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game while scoring 1.5 goals

7 out of 12 games saw over 2.5 goals

Both teams scored in 7 out of 12 games

New York City's goal production has also slowed recently (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.8 goals)

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, New York City leads with 3 wins

Charlotte has 1 win, and there was 1 draw

New York City scored 7 goals, while Charlotte scored 3 goals

The last direct encounter on April 18, 2026, saw Charlotte win 2:1 against New York City

New York City is considered recently dominant in the head-to-head record

Key Players

Charlotte's key players are Pep Biel, Idan Toklomati, and Wilfried Zaha

Pep Biel (Midfielder) has 6 goals and 4 assists this season with an average rating of 7.26

Idan Toklomati (Attacker) contributed 4 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.76

Wilfried Zaha (Attacker) has 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.04

New York City's key players are NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau, Maxi Moralez, and Hannes Wolf

NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau (Midfielder) has 8 goals and 2 assists this season with an average rating of 7.93

Maxi Moralez (Midfielder) contributed 1 goal and 6 assists with an average rating of 7.36

Hannes Wolf (Attacker) has 5 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.02

Goalkeepers

Charlotte's goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina has 1 clean sheet in 12 appearances with an average rating of 7.13

New York City's goalkeeper Matt Freese has 2 clean sheets in 12 appearances with an average rating of 6.89

Influences

Charlotte shows a home advantage, scoring an average of 1.75 goals and conceding only 0.88 goals in home matches

New York City shows a defensive weakness in away matches, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per away game

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