Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire - Cincinnati
05/03/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.1
1.2
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
7%1:2
6%What influences the xG?
Chicago Fire
Cincinnati
League
The Lab
- 1Chicago Fire: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- 2Chicago Fire with Jonathan Dean: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Cincinnati with Alvas Powell: 7.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Cincinnati: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- 5Cincinnati: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
24%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 55% home win probability for Chicago Fire with 1.98 expected goals
- Chicago Fire shows strong home performance with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home game
- Chicago Fire's positive goal-scoring trend (2.4 goals per game recently) meets Cincinnati's extremely vulnerable away defense (average 4.0 goals conceded per away game)
Risk Factors
- Cincinnati concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away game
- The last head-to-head match ended in a 3-3 draw
- Cincinnati scores an average of 2.0 goals per away game, indicating offensive strength
Overview
Chicago Fire (3rd place, 17 points) hosts Cincinnati (9th place, 12 points) in a Major League Soccer match on May 3, 2026, 2:30 AM. Chicago Fire aims to consolidate their top table position, while Cincinnati seeks to keep pace with the playoff spots.
Form
Chicago Fire is in excellent form, recording 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five games (WWWDW). Their last match was a 5-0 victory. Cincinnati shows mixed form with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches (LDDDW). Their most recent game was a 2-0 win. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Chicago Fire has scored an average of 1.89 goals and conceded 0.89 goals per game this season. At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game, leading to 4 home clean sheets. Cincinnati has scored an average of 1.90 goals per game but conceded 2.30 goals. Their away defense is significantly more vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per game, with no away clean sheets. For Chicago Fire, over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 out of 9 games, and both teams scored in 4 games. For Cincinnati, over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 out of 10 games, and both teams scored in 6 games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Chicago Fire has 1 win, Cincinnati has 3 wins, and there has been 1 draw. The goal difference is 8:10 in favor of Cincinnati. The last encounter on April 18, 2026, ended in a 3-3 draw. Historical matchups have recently been dominated by Cincinnati.
Key Players
For Chicago Fire, Hugo Cuypers (8 goals, Avg. 7.94 rating, 6 goals in last 5 games), Philip Zinckernagel (4 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.21 rating, rising form), and Maren Haile-Selassie (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.99 rating) are key offensive players. Jonathan Bamba (2 goals, 2 assists) and Leonardo Barroso (0 goals, 2 assists) are not in the squad.
For Cincinnati, KĆ©vin Denkey (6 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.22 rating, rising form), Evander (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.45 rating, rising form), and Pavel Bucha (1 goal, 2 assists, Avg. 6.90 rating) are among the top performers. Ender Echenique (1 goal, 3 assists) and Tom Barlow (2 goals, 0 assists) were not fielded.
Goalkeepers
In goal for Chicago Fire is Chris Brady, who achieved an average rating of 7.06 in 9 season appearances and significantly contributed to the team's 5 clean sheets. For Cincinnati, Roman Celentano is the goalkeeper, having played in 8 season games, earning an average rating of 6.88, and helping his team to 2 clean sheets.
Influences
Chicago Fire benefits from a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 1.83 home goals and conceding only 0.33 home goals per game. Cincinnati, on the other hand, shows a very vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game.