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Major League Soccer

Toronto - Atlanta United

04/25/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Toronto
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Atlanta United
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
TORAU

Toronto

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.51
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.19
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.07
Richie Laryea on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.48
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.5 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap)
-0.10
Emmanuel Latte Lath on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Miguel AlmirĆ³n not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 58% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.74
+0.74
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toronto: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 2
    Toronto: 81% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Toronto with Josh Sargent: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlanta United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Atlanta United with TomƔs Jacob: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Toronto with 51%
  • Toronto is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WWDDD), while Atlanta United has lost 4 of their last 5 matches (DLLLL)
  • Toronto is currently scoring more often (Avg. 2.4 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.8 goals), while Atlanta United's goal production is stagnant (Avg. 0.5 goals recently vs. Avg. 0.9 goals season average)
Risk Factors
  • Only 58% of Atlanta United's usual starting XI strength is available, with Emmanuel Latte Lath and Miguel AlmirĆ³n missing
  • Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could impact their physical performance
Overview

Toronto (6th place, 13 points) host Atlanta United (15th place, 4 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on April 25, 2026, 7:00 PM

Toronto aims to leverage its good home form and extend its lead in the table

Atlanta United is looking for a way out of its current crisis

Form

Toronto's form across all competitions is WWDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws

Their last 3 matches all ended in a draw

Atlanta United's form across all competitions is DLLLL

The team has recorded 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 5 games

Atlanta United is on a negative run with 4 consecutive losses

Their last match ended in a loss

Statistics

Toronto's offense averages 1.78 goals per game (Home: 1.86 goals)

Atlanta United's offense averages 0.78 goals per game

Toronto's defense concedes an average of 1.89 goals per game (Home: 1.57 goals)

Atlanta United's defense concedes an average of 1.78 goals per game

In 7 of Toronto's games, both teams scored, compared to 4 for Atlanta United

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 of Toronto's games and 4 of Atlanta United's games

Toronto failed to score in 1 game, Atlanta United in 5 games

Both teams have kept 1 clean sheet each

Head-to-Head

There have been a total of 4 head-to-head matches between the teams

Both teams secured 1 win each, while 2 matches ended in a draw

Toronto scored 4 goals in these encounters, Atlanta United 3 goals

The last encounter on August 24, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

The head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Toronto, DĆ”niel SallĆ³i (3 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 6.98), Josh Sargent (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 6.96), and Alonso Coello (0 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 7.16) are notable

Alonso Coello showed a stable form trend in the last 5 games with 1 assist and an avg rating of 7.29

Josh Sargent recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a stable form trend and avg rating of 7.02

For Atlanta United, Aleksey Miranchuk (4 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.20), Stian Gregersen (avg rating 7.00), and Lucas Hoyos (avg rating 6.55) stand out

Aleksey Miranchuk shows a declining form trend in the last 5 games with an avg rating of 6.89

Lucas Hoyos recorded a rising form trend in the last 5 games with an avg rating of 6.75

Goalkeepers

Toronto's goalkeeper Luka Gavran has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Atlanta United's goalkeeper Lucas Hoyos has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Both teams show similar performance regarding games without conceding a goal

Influences

Toronto scores an average of 1.86 goals at home and concedes 1.57 goals

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