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Portland Timbers – Atlanta United0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.57
Total xG
2.71
Atlanta United
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Fafà Picault on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Portland's strong home record on artificial turf with 6 wins from 10 matches while Atlanta suffered 6 losses away on this surface
- The mathematical model predicts a 46% home win probability and 1.57 expected goals for the Timbers
- Portland's strong home offense averaging 1.94 goals meets Atlanta's vulnerable away defense conceding 2.2 goals on average
Risks
- High defensive instability for Portland with an average of 1.88 goals conceded per match
- Extreme goal trend at Providence Park with an average of 4.6 goals and a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches
- Limited data due to the lack of historical head-to-head records in the database
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers46%
Draw28%
Atlanta United26%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw74%
Atlanta United or draw54%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/5 games, last 25)
- Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-3-3 · Atlanta United 4-2-3-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 20 F. Surman
- 2 J. Waterman
- 27 J. Fory
- 17 C. Bassett
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 99 K. Velde
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 11 G. Galoppo
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
- 36 B. Embolo
Substitutes
- 4 K. Miller
- 15 E. Miller
- 23 I. Smith
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 88 G. Guerra
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 14 V. Janssen
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 20 L. Brennan
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 47 M. Edwards
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 22 F. Picault
- 35 A. Fortune
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