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Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - Atlanta United

09/20/2026, 02:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Atlanta United
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PTAU

Portland Timbers

Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.04
Full strength squad available

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
FafĆ  Picault on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/5 games, last 25)

  • 4
    Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Portland's strong home record on artificial turf with 6 wins from 10 matches while Atlanta suffered 6 losses away on this surface
  • The mathematical model predicts a 46% home win probability and 1.57 expected goals for the Timbers
  • Portland's strong home offense averaging 1.94 goals meets Atlanta's vulnerable away defense conceding 2.2 goals on average
Risk Factors
  • High defensive instability for Portland with an average of 1.88 goals conceded per match
  • Extreme goal trend at Providence Park with an average of 4.6 goals and a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches
  • Limited data due to the lack of historical head-to-head records in the database
Overview

Portland Timbers hosts Atlanta United

Major League Soccer match on September 20, 2026, 4:30 AM

Portland occupies 8th place with 32 points

Atlanta United sits in 14th place with 23 points

The hosts enter the match as slight favorites

Form

Portland's current form is DLWDL

They recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses recently

Atlanta's form is WLDLD

The visitors also registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Portland scores an average of 1.88 goals and concedes 1.88 goals per match

At home, Portland averages 1.94 goals scored and 1.5 conceded

Atlanta United scores 1.16 goals and concedes 1.72 on average

Away from home, Atlanta concedes an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 20 out of Portland's 25 matches

Key Players

Kristoffer Velde has scored 8 goals and provided 6 assists this season

David Da Costa has registered 3 goals and 7 assists for the Timbers

Ariel Lassiter currently has 4 goals and 3 assists

Miguel AlmirĆ³n leads Atlanta with 4 goals and 4 assists

Aleksey Miranchuk has recorded 5 goals and 7 assists this campaign

TomƔs Jacob has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist so far

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis plays in goal for Portland with 25 appearances and 1 clean sheet

Lucas Hoyos guarded the goal for Atlanta in 25 matches with 2 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers have played consistently

Influences

The match is played at Providence Park on artificial turf

Portland achieved 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses on this surface

Atlanta recorded only 3 wins and 6 losses away on artificial turf

The stadium statistics show an average of 4.6 goals per game

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