Match report ā
New England ā Seattle Sounders0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
New England
1.61
Total xG
2.94
Seattle Sounders
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New England | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Dor Turgeman not in squad (7 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Peyton Miller not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 34% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Kalani Kossa-Rienzi on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong recent form: Seattle Sounders are scoring more frequently recently (2.2) than their season average (1.4) and remain unbeaten in 5 games
- Home strength on artificial turf: New England occupy 2nd place in the table and conceded just 13 goals in 16 home matches
- Model signal: Calculations estimate a 43% win probability for New England with 1.61 expected home goals
Risks
- Squad impact for New England: Dor Turgeman and Peyton Miller are missing, only 69% of typical goal threat available
- Away struggle on artificial turf: Seattle Sounders recorded 5 losses in 10 matches on artificial turf with 12:17 goals
- Defensive concern for host: New England conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match over their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
New England43%
Draw27%
Seattle Sounders30%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
New England or draw70%
Seattle Sounders or draw57%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 16 total)
- Seattle Sounders with Cristian RoldƔn starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (17/7 games, last 27)
- Seattle Sounders: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
Lineups
New England 4-3-3 Ā· Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 66 J. Wynder
- 23 W. Sands
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 21 B. Raines
- 14 J. Yueill
- 41 L. Langoni
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 25 P. Miller
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 16 A. Roldan
- 28 Y. GĆ³mez Andrade
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 31 H. Dotson
- 7 C. Roldan
- 13 J. Morris
- 11 A. RusnƔk
- 90 S. Gomez
- 9 D. JoveljiÄ
Substitutes
- 6 T. Smith
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 12 I. Feingold
- 33 D. Parisian
- 15 C. Baker
- 2 M. Fofana
- 57 J. Mussenden
- 77 D. FagĆŗndez Pepe
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
- 67 M. Wells
- 8 C. Clark
- 27 J. Ferreira
- 17 P. Arriola
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 35 A. Lopez
- 37 S. Brunell
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 45 P. Kingston
- 4 R. Sailor
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 81 M. Bronnik
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