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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - LA Galaxy

08/16/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.3
Total xG
2.3
LA Galaxy
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
HDLG

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.5x league average)
-1.06
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.54
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap)
+0.05

LA Galaxy

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Marco Reus not in squad (4 goals, 6 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 47% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Houston Dynamo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    LA Galaxy with Edwin Cerrillo: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Gabriel Pec: 3 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

  • 4
    LA Galaxy: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

32%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: Houston Dynamo are unbeaten in 5 matches (DDWWW) while LA Galaxy are winless in 5 matches (DLLDD)
  • Tactical metrics: Houston Dynamo averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches with 54.2% possession
  • Home strength: Houston's defensive setup allows only 0.88 goals conceded per home game on average
Risk Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Marco Reus is missing for LA Galaxy, leaving only 48% of their usual starting strength available
  • Away defensive issues: LA Galaxy concede an average of 1.5 goals per away game
  • Low-scoring venue: Matches at Shell Energy Stadium average only 1.6 goals
Overview

Houston Dynamo host LA Galaxy at Shell Energy Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 16, 2026, 2:30 AM

Houston are in 4th place with 32 points

LA Galaxy are in 12th place with 22 points

Houston aim to secure their strong table position

Form

Form string Houston Dynamo: DDWWW

Form string LA Galaxy: DLLDD

Houston are unbeaten in 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws

LA Galaxy are winless in 5 games with 3 draws and 2 losses

Houston's recent form is positive while LA Galaxy are struggling

Statistics

Houston score an average of 1.5 goals and concede 1.33 goals per game

At home, Houston concede only 0.88 goals on average

LA Galaxy score 1.3 goals and concede 1.5 goals on average away from home

LA Galaxy have kept only one clean sheet away from home this season

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Houston won 1, LA Galaxy won 1, and 3 ended in a draw

The last head-to-head match ended in a 1-1 draw

The historical goal difference is even at 6-6 goals

Key Players

Guilherme scored 11 goals and provided 5 assists this season with a 7.94 rating

Mateusz Bogusz has 4 goals and 1 assist with a rising form trend

Jack McGlynn contributed 2 goals and 5 assists so far

Joseph Paintsil is the most dangerous attacker for the guests with 4 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeeper J. Marcinkowski holds an average season rating of 7.06

Lucas Sanabria recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in midfield for LA Galaxy

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Bond plays in goal for Houston and kept 7 clean sheets this season

J. Marcinkowski starts in goal for LA Galaxy and has 3 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Shell Energy Stadium

The venue history shows a low-scoring trend with an average of 1.6 goals per game

Houston's home defense is strong, conceding only 0.88 goals per game

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