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Major League Soccer

Seattle Sounders - Vancouver Whitecaps

08/17/2026, 02:30 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Seattle Sounders
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SSVW

Seattle Sounders

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.25
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.15
C. Roldan not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02
Brian White on the bench (10 goals, 2 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Seattle Sounders with Antino Lopez: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Vancouver Whitecaps with Bruno Caicedo: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 4
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Vancouver Whitecaps: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

27%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Significant form gap: Seattle suffered 5 consecutive losses while Vancouver is favored as 2nd in the standings with a 42% win probability
  • Tactical edge: Vancouver averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to only 3.6 for Seattle
  • Not in the lineup for the visitors: Star forward Brian White (10 goals, 2 assists) is injured, reducing Vancouver's usual threat
Risk Factors
  • Seattle's goal production has stalled, averaging only 0.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.18
  • Defensive weakness on the road: Vancouver Whitecaps concede an average of 1.71 goals per away game
  • Midfield loss: Seattle is missing midfielder C. Roldan (3 goals, 1 assist) due to injury
Overview

Seattle Sounders (12th place, 24 points) host Vancouver Whitecaps (2nd place, 34 points) at Lumen Field

MLS match on August 17, 2026, 2:30 AM

The visitors arrive as 2nd in the table while Seattle looks to close the gap to the playoff spots

Form

Seattle Sounders are on a 5-game losing streak (Form: LLLLL)

Vancouver Whitecaps recently recorded 2 consecutive draws (Form: LWLDD)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Seattle scores an average of 1.18 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per game

Vancouver scores an average of 2.24 goals while conceding 1.00 goal per game

Seattle scores 1.18 goals on average at home, whereas Vancouver averages 2.29 goals away from home

Head-to-Head

Historical record from 5 head-to-head matches: 1 win for Seattle, 2 wins for Vancouver, 2 draws

Goal difference of 6:8 in favor of Vancouver

The last head-to-head match ended in a 2:2 draw on September 28, 2025

Key Players

Albert RusnĂĄk with 3 goals and 4 assists, average rating 7.16

JesĂșs Ferreira with 2 goals and 4 assists, average rating 7.13

Paul Rothrock with 5 goals and 1 assist, average rating 6.95

Thomas MĂŒller with 5 goals and 2 assists, average rating 7.35

MathĂ­as Laborda with 3 goals and 3 assists, average rating 7.11

Jeevan Badwal with 1 goal and 2 assists, average rating 6.98

Goalkeepers

Andrew Thomas recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Yohei Takaoka recorded 6 clean sheets for his team

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Lumen Field

Seattle recorded 4W-1D-3L (14:14 goals) on artificial turf

Vancouver has a strong record of 8W-1D-1L (26:6 goals) on artificial turf

Venue history shows a high average of 4.4 goals per game

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