Match report →
Colorado Rapids – Austin1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
1.74
Total xG
2.78
Austin
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.85 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.51 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Wayne Frederick on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Georgi Minoungou on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| J. Rosales on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jon Bell not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Model prediction: Home win probability is calculated at 52% with 1.74 expected goals for Colorado Rapids
- Away defense vulnerability: Austin concedes an average of 3.5 goals per away game this season
- Home offensive advantage: Colorado averages 1.6 goals scored per home match while Austin struggles on the road
Risks
- Declining goal production: Colorado Rapids' scoring has stalled recently at 0.8 goals per match compared to a 1.6 season average
- Low offensive volume: Colorado averaged only 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Head-to-head warning: Austin won the last meeting away 2-0 in June 2025
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids52%
Draw27%
Austin21%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw79%
Austin or draw48%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Austin with Ilie Sánchez: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Austin: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Colorado Rapids: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Colorado Rapids with Hamzat Ojediran: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1 · Austin 3-4-3
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 4 R. Cannon
- 22 L. Herrington
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 7 D. Sealy
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 33 O. Wolff
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 10 M. Uzuni
Substitutes
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 12 J. Atencio
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 77 D. Yapi
- 33 K. Thompson
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 32 D. Phillip
- 47 S. Wathuta
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 7 J. Nelson
- 5 O. Svatok
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 12 D. Las
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 38 E. Torres
- 21 C. Ramírez
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
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