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Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids - Austin

08/02/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Colorado Rapids
1.7
Total xG
2.8
Austin
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CRAUS

Colorado Rapids

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.25
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.11
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
Wayne Frederick on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Georgi Minoungou on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Austin

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.85
Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.51
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.17
J. Rosales on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Jon Bell not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Austin with Ilie SƔnchez: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Austin: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Colorado Rapids: 76% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Colorado Rapids with Hamzat Ojediran: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

27%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Model prediction: Home win probability is calculated at 52% with 1.74 expected goals for Colorado Rapids
  • Away defense vulnerability: Austin concedes an average of 3.5 goals per away game this season
  • Home offensive advantage: Colorado averages 1.6 goals scored per home match while Austin struggles on the road
Risk Factors
  • Declining goal production: Colorado Rapids' scoring has stalled recently at 0.8 goals per match compared to a 1.6 season average
  • Low offensive volume: Colorado averaged only 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Head-to-head warning: Austin won the last meeting away 2-0 in June 2025
Overview

Colorado Rapids hosts Austin at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Major League Soccer match on August 2, 2026, 2:30 AM

Clash in the lower half of the table between 13th and 14th place

Colorado Rapids is the favorite with a predicted 52% win probability

Form

Colorado Rapids form: WLLWL

Austin form: LLLWL

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Colorado recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last matches

Austin obtained 1 win and 4 losses in their last matches

Statistics

Colorado Rapids scores 1.53 goals and concedes 1.47 goals on average

Strong home record with 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded per match

Austin scores 1.29 goals and concedes 2.06 goals on average

Defensive issues away with 3.5 goals conceded per game on the road

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in total

Even record with 2 wins for each team

Overall goal difference stands at 5:5

Austin won the last meeting 2-0 away on June 8, 2025

Key Players

Rafael Navarro has 8 goals and 3 assists with a 7.24 rating

Paxten Aaronson contributes 4 goals and 4 assists with a 7.16 rating

Lucas Herrington solidifies the defense with a 7.08 rating

Myrto Uzuni is Austin's top scorer with 6 goals and a 7.01 rating

Facundo Torres has provided 5 assists with a 7.19 rating

Ilie SƔnchez shows rising form with a 6.65 rating

Goalkeepers

Nicolas Hansen plays for Colorado and has a 7.00 average rating

Brad Stuver guards Austin's goal with a 7.14 average rating

Hansen achieved 2 clean sheets at home this season

Stuver recorded 4 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

Match played at Dick's Sporting Goods Park on natural grass

Stadium average of 3.6 goals per game

Strong home advantage for Colorado against a travel-weary Austin side

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