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Major League Soccer

Toronto - Charlotte

08/19/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Toronto
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Charlotte
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
TORCHA

Toronto

Attack weakness (0.5x league average)
-0.98
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Kobe Franklin on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jonathan OsorioĀ  not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Charlotte

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.42
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.01
Kerwin Vargas not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Harry Toffolo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Agyemang Morrison on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Charlotte: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Charlotte: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Toronto with Emilio AristizƔbal: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Charlotte with Will Cleary: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Toronto: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

32%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Charlotte scores consistently with an average of 1.8 goals per game, while Toronto's attack recently dropped to 1.3
  • Historical dominance with 4 wins for Charlotte from the last 5 head-to-head matches
  • Charlotte averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to only 2.8 for Toronto
Risk Factors
  • Charlotte concedes an average of 3.2 goals per away game this season
  • Toronto has not kept a single clean sheet at home this season
  • Limited recovery time with only 4 days of rest for both teams since their last match
Overview

Toronto (12th place, 20 points) host Charlotte (5th place, 28 points) at BMO Field

Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 1:30 AM

A clash between the 12th and 5th placed teams in the league

The mathematical model predicts a highly balanced game with a minimal advantage for Charlotte at a 35% win probability compared to 33% for Toronto

Form

Toronto shows a recent form of DDLDW

Charlotte enters with a form of WDWLW

The hosts recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Charlotte registered 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the same period

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Toronto scored an average of 1.37 goals and conceded 1.74 goals per game this season

In home games, Toronto averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded

Charlotte averages 1.68 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

In away games, Charlotte concedes an average of 3.2 goals while scoring 1.8

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches

Charlotte dominates the record with 4 wins, while Toronto won only 1 match

The goal difference stands at 10:4 in favor of Charlotte

The last encounter ended in a 3-1 win for Charlotte

Key Players

DĆ”niel SallĆ³i scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists in 19 games

Josh Sargent contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in 12 appearances

Alonso Coello shines with an average rating of 7.25

Pep Biel has already scored 10 goals and assisted 5 more for Charlotte

Liel Abada has 2 goals and 3 assists in 13 matches

Ashley Westwood has registered 2 goals and 1 assist in 18 games

Goalkeepers

Luka Gavran played 19 games for Toronto with an average rating of 6.77

The goalkeeper has not kept a clean sheet at home this season

Kristijan Kahlina played 19 matches for Charlotte, achieving a 7.09 rating

He has kept a total of 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at BMO Field

An average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches at this stadium

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches at this venue

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