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Portland Timbers – Seattle Sounders2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.46
Total xG
2.53
Seattle Sounders
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.53 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Antony on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesús Ferreira on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jordan Morris not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form Gap: Seattle enters with a streak of 5 consecutive losses while Portland has recently shown an upward trend
- Tactical Advantage: Portland recently averaged 6.2 shots on target per match with 59% possession
- Home vs Away Stats: Portland averages 1.8 goals scored at home while Seattle concedes an average of 1.6 goals away from home
Risks
- Portland's defensive vulnerability: Conceding an average of 1.88 goals per game with only 1 clean sheet all season
- Seattle's missing attackers: Without Jesús Ferreira and Jordan Morris only 86% of the usual goal scoring threat is available
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers44%
Draw29%
Seattle Sounders26%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw74%
Seattle Sounders or draw56%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portland Timbers with José Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Antino Lopez: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Portland Timbers: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Portland Timbers: 65% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1 · Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 5 B. Bye
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 17 C. Bassett
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 99 K. Velde
- 19 K. Kelsy Genez
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 17 P. Arriola
- 20 K. Kim
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 5 N. Tolo
- 37 S. Brunell
- 45 P. Kingston
- 9 J. Ferreira
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 95 O. De Rosario
Substitutes
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 15 E. Miller
- 16 S. Jura
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 16 A. Roldan
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 35 A. Lopez
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 90 S. Gomez
- 4 R. Sailor
- 40 M. O'Neill
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