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Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - Seattle Sounders

08/02/2026, 02:45 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Seattle Sounders
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PTSS

Portland Timbers

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.05
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.02
Antony on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Seattle Sounders

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.53
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.26
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.26
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.02
JesĆŗs Ferreira on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Jordan Morris not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers with JosƩ Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Seattle Sounders with Antino Lopez: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Portland Timbers: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Portland Timbers: 65% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Form Gap: Seattle enters with a streak of 5 consecutive losses while Portland has recently shown an upward trend
  • Tactical Advantage: Portland recently averaged 6.2 shots on target per match with 59% possession
  • Home vs Away Stats: Portland averages 1.8 goals scored at home while Seattle concedes an average of 1.6 goals away from home
Risk Factors
  • Portland's defensive vulnerability: Conceding an average of 1.88 goals per game with only 1 clean sheet all season
  • Seattle's missing attackers: Without JesĆŗs Ferreira and Jordan Morris only 86% of the usual goal scoring threat is available
Overview

Portland Timbers host Seattle Sounders at Providence Park

Major League Soccer match on August 2, 2026, 4:15 AM

Portland occupies 10th place with 21 points while Seattle is in 8th place with 24 points

Crucial match in the battle for playoff spots

Form

Portland Timbers show an upward trend with their form of LLWDW

Their last match was a 2-1 home victory against Real Salt Lake

Seattle Sounders are in a crisis with 5 consecutive losses and a form of LLLLL

The visitors lost their last match 0-1 away to Philadelphia Union

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Portland averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.88 goals conceded per game

Seattle averages 1.19 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded

At home Portland averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded

Away from home Seattle averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

Out of the last 5 head-to-head matches Portland won 2 and Seattle won 1 with 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a dominant 5-1 away win for Portland on July 17, 2026

Recent history favors Portland in this matchup

Key Players

Kevin Kelsy is Portland's top forward with 8 goals this season and a rising form trend

Kristoffer Velde has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists for Portland

Albert RusnƔk is Seattle's key midfielder with 3 goals and 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis plays in goal for Portland with an average rating of 7.11

Andrew Thomas has kept 5 clean sheets for Seattle this season

Both goalkeepers show a declining form trend in recent matches

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at Providence Park

Portland has a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses on artificial turf

The venue averages 4.0 goals per game across the last 5 matches

The mathematical analysis estimates a home win probability of 44%

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