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Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - Dallas

08/20/2026, 01:30 AM

3 : 4
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Dallas
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RSLDAL

Real Salt Lake

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.66
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.42
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.20
Zavier Gozo not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 94% available)

Dallas

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.24
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.19
Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average)
-0.15
Logan Farrington on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
Patrickson Delgado on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 4
    Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Real Salt Lake: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Home defense vs away attack: Real Salt Lake concedes only 0.82 goals per home game, while Dallas averages 1.78 goals away
  • Dallas counter-attack style: The visitors averaged just 35.8% possession recently and will rely on quick transitions
  • Form contrast: Dallas travels with a more stable trend (WDLDW), whereas Real Salt Lake is winless in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Physical fatigue for Dallas: The visitors travel with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Low offensive efficiency: Dallas averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their recent matches
  • Form slump for Real Salt Lake: The hosts show a negative form trend in advanced stats and are winless in 5 games
Overview

Real Salt Lake hosts Dallas at America First Field

Major League Soccer match on August 20, 2026, 1:30 AM (UTC)

Real Salt Lake is in 7th place with 28 points, while Dallas is 5th with 30 points

Form

Real Salt Lake is without a win in their last 5 games, showing a form of DLLDD

Dallas exhibits a more stable form of WDLDW in their recent matches

Dallas won their last game, while Real Salt Lake recorded a draw

Statistics

Real Salt Lake scores an average of 1.73 goals at home and concedes 0.82

Dallas is strong on the road, averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per away game

Both sides have recorded 12 matches with over 2.5 goals this season

Head-to-Head

Out of the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 2 and Real Salt Lake won 1, with 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 3-1 victory for Dallas on May 10, 2026

Key Players

Sergi Solans leads Real Salt Lake's attack with 8 goals this season

Diego Luna has contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in midfield

Dallas forward Petar Musa stands out with 14 goals so far

Goalkeepers

Rafael Cabral starts in goal for Real Salt Lake with 2 clean sheets this season

Jonathan Sirois features in goal for Dallas, maintaining a strong average rating of 7.55

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at America First Field

Real Salt Lake's home defense is formidable, conceding only 9 goals in 11 games

Dallas travels with a solid away attack, scoring 1.78 goals per game on average

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