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Major League Soccer

Orlando City - Chicago Fire

08/19/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Orlando City
1.4
Total xG
3.1
Chicago Fire
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
OCCF

Orlando City

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.63
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Braian Ojeda not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Eduard Atuesta on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Tiago on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Chicago Fire

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.56
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.21
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Philip Zinckernagel on the bench (5 goals, 8 assists)
Maren Haile-Selassie on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Robin Lod on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Leonardo Barroso on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 38% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chicago Fire: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Orlando City: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Orlando City with Tiago: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Orlando City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Chicago Fire: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

26%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Only 38% of Chicago Fire's usual goal threat is active, missing key players Philip Zinckernagel, Maren Haile-Selassie, Robin Lod, and Leonardo Barroso
  • Orlando City scored more goals on average recently (2.0) compared to their season average (1.63)
  • Orlando City averaged a strong 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Chicago Fire has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Chicago Fire concedes an average of 1.86 goals per away game
Overview

Orlando City (10th place, 21 points) host Chicago Fire (3rd place, 32 points) at the Inter&Co Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 19, 2026, 7:30 PM

Third-placed Chicago Fire enter the match as the favorites

Form

Orlando City showing a form of LWWLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Cincinnati

Chicago Fire is in a form of WLLWW (3 wins, 2 losses) with two consecutive victories

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Orlando City scores an average of 1.63 goals but concedes 2.53 goals per match

At home, their defense is more stable, conceding 1.4 goals per game

Chicago Fire scores an average of 2.0 goals away from home while conceding 1.86 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Chicago Fire won 2, Orlando City won 1, and 2 ended in draws

The last match ended in a 3-1 win for Chicago Fire

The overall goal difference in these matches is 7-9 against Orlando City

Key Players

Antoine Griezmann stands out for Orlando City with a season average rating of 7.46

Justin Ellis contributes with 1 goal and 5 assists

Robert Lewandowski leads Chicago Fire with 2 goals and a rating of 7.11

Goalkeepers

Maxime Crépeau has 18 appearances for Orlando City with 2 clean sheets

Chris Brady has kept 6 clean sheets this season for Chicago Fire

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Inter&Co Stadium

Stadium history shows an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the historical matches at this venue

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