Match report →
Toronto – CF Montréal2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Toronto
1.61
Total xG
3.01
CF Montréal
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toronto | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Derrick Etienne Jr. on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: CF Montréal concede an average of 3.00 goals per away match
- Historical edge: Toronto are unbeaten in their last 5 head-to-head encounters against CF Montréal (3 wins, 2 draws)
- Prediction model: Mathematical probabilities indicate a 41% home win chance and an 82% likelihood for over 1.5 goals
Risks
- Home defensive concern: Toronto have yet to record a clean sheet in home matches this season (0 clean sheets)
- Low scoring trend: CF Montréal averaged just 0.80 goals scored per match in their last 5 outings
- Lineup change: Derrick Etienne Jr. is not included in Toronto's starting lineup
All probabilities
Result
Toronto41%
Draw27%
CF Montréal32%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Double chance
Toronto or draw68%
CF Montréal or draw59%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Dániel Sallói: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- CF Montréal: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Toronto 4-3-3 · CF Montréal 3-4-2-1
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 15 N. Gomis
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 21 J. Osorio
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 9 J. Sargent
- 20 D. Salloi
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 2 J. Neal
- 5 B. Craig
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 22 V. Loturi
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 9 P. Owusu
Substitutes
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 90 L. Morgan
- 38 J. Gilman
- 27 A. Piedrahita Díaz
- 96 R. Chukwu
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 28 V. Radojević
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 6 S. Piette
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 23 N. Streit
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 41 S. Keita
- 21 F. Herbers
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