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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - Portland Timbers

09/27/2026, 02:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Portland Timbers
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SEPT

SJ Earthquakes

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.13
Niko Tsakiris on the bench (3 goals, 7 assists)
Ousseni Bouda on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Portland Timbers

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.00
Finn Surman on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: 40% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 15)

  • 3
    Portland Timbers with Ariel Lassiter starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1 (11/5 games, last 26)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 5
    Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage: SJ Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, while Portland lost 3 of their last 5 games
  • Porous away defense: Portland Timbers concede a high average of 2.56 goals per away match this season
  • Mathematical favorite: The pipeline model predicts a home win with a 47% probability
Risk Factors
  • Goekeeping uncertainty: SJ goalkeeper Earl Edwards Jr. has only played one match so far this season
  • Deficits in defensive stability: Portland managed only 1 clean sheet over 26 league fixtures
  • High-scoring history: Matches at PayPal Park average 4.0 goals, and the model estimates a 61% chance for BTTS
Overview

SJ Earthquakes host Portland Timbers at PayPal Park

Major League Soccer match on September 27, 2026, 2:30 AM

SJ Earthquakes are in 5th place with 42 points

Portland Timbers are in 9th place with 32 points

The home team enters as the favorite

Form

Form of SJ Earthquakes: DDWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts recorded 2 wins and 3 draws recently

Form of Portland Timbers: LWDLL

The visitors have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes average 1.77 goals scored per game

The hosts score 1.83 goals per home game on average

Portland Timbers concede an average of 2.56 goals per away match

The visitors kept only 1 clean sheet so far this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches in total

Both teams secured 2 wins alongside 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 3-1 victory for the Earthquakes

Key Players

Preston Judd leads the Earthquakes with 13 goals and 3 assists

Timo Werner contributes with 6 goals and 5 assists

Kristoffer Velde has 8 goals and 6 assists for Portland

Goalkeepers

Earl Edwards Jr. starts for the hosts with 1 appearance this season

James Pantemis has played all 26 matches in goal for Portland

SJ Earthquakes have 7 clean sheets compared to just 1 for Portland

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at PayPal Park

Matches at this venue average 4.0 goals per game

The home ground advantage plays a significant role

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