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Major League Soccer

New York RB - Chicago Fire

08/22/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
New York RB
1.6
Total xG
3.2
Chicago Fire
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
NYRCF

New York RB

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Jorge Ruvalcaba on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

Chicago Fire

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.03
Andrew Gutman on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Robert Lewandowski on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    New York RB: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    New York RB with Gustav Berggren: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    New York RB: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Chicago Fire: 47% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

26%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Tactical approach: New York RB averaged 4.6 shots on target with 56.4% possession in recent matches
  • Away momentum: Chicago Fire enter the matchup on a strong run of three consecutive wins
  • Away attack: Chicago Fire score a notable average of 2.0 goals per away match this season
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Defensive fragility: New York RB suffer from an average of 2.1 goals conceded per match this season
  • Key missing players: Andrew Gutman (1G/3A) and Robert Lewandowski (3G/0A) are not selected for Chicago Fire
Overview

New York RB host Chicago Fire at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 22, 2026, 11:30 PM

New York RB sit in 8th place with 25 points, while Chicago Fire are in 3rd place with 35 points

Chicago Fire travel as favorites against the struggling home side

Form

Form string New York RB: LLWLL

Form string Chicago Fire: LLWWW

New York RB suffered two consecutive losses and managed only one win in their last five matches

Chicago Fire are on a roll with three consecutive victories

Statistics

New York RB concede an average of 2.1 goals per game this season

Chicago Fire score an average of 1.89 goals per match

New York RB's home average stands at 1.45 goals scored and 1.73 conceded

Chicago Fire average an impressive 2.0 goals scored per away game while conceding 1.75

Head-to-Head

An even historical record with two wins each from five direct duels

The last matchup on May 9, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Chicago Fire

A total of six goals were scored by New York RB and five by Chicago Fire across their last five encounters

Key Players

Julian Hall is the top threat for New York RB with 9 goals this season

Philip Zinckernagel leads Chicago Fire with 5 goals and 8 assists

Emil Forsberg has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists for the hosts

Goalkeepers

Ethan Horvath guards the net for New York RB with a season rating of 6.71

Chris Brady starts for Chicago Fire having recorded 6 clean sheets and a season rating of 6.89

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

New York RB average 1.45 goals scored and 1.73 conceded at home

The historical venue statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

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