Match report →
St. Louis City – LA Galaxy6 : 2
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.93
Total xG
2.99
LA Galaxy
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.37 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Hirving Lozano not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 43% of goal output missing (only 50% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Only 50% of active goal threat available for LA Galaxy without Hirving Lozano
- Tactical trend: St. Louis City averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches, scoring 3.0 goals per game
- Model signal: The calculations assign a 56% win probability to the home side with 1.93 expected home goals
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: LA Galaxy concede an average of 1.86 goals per away match
- Home team defensive record: St. Louis City conceded in 19 out of 27 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City56%
Draw25%
LA Galaxy19%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw81%
LA Galaxy or draw44%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
6:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- St. Louis City: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- St. Louis City: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-3 · LA Galaxy 4-3-3
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 6 C. Wallem
- 24 D. Edelman
- 8 C. Durkin
- 14 T. Totland
- 19 C. Holse
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
- 23 A. Măţan
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 26 H. Miller
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 15 J. Haak
- 3 J. Aude
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 27 E. Thommy
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 7 K. Furuhashi
- 21 R. Taylor
Substitutes
- 42 D. Downs
- 11 S. Becher
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 28 M. Perez
- 39 B. Lundt
- 77 S. Jeong
- 99 J. Orozco
- 27 F. Fol
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 1 N. Mićović
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 14 J. Nelson
- 18 M. Reus
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 99 J. De Mello
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 2 L. Calegari
- 3 M. Williamson
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →