Match report →
Houston Dynamo – Minnesota United0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Houston Dynamo
1.51
Total xG
3.00
Minnesota United
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Houston Dynamo | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.55 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Tomás Chancalay not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marcus Caldeira not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wil Trapp not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Goals: Houston scored 1.8 goals per match in the last 5 (2.2 conceded), while Minnesota scored 2.0 and conceded 2.4
- Away: Minnesota United scored 1.87 goals per match away in the league this season and conceded 2.33 per match
Risks
- Table: Houston Dynamo are 5th in the league with 47 points, while Minnesota United are 13th with 34 points in 30 matches
- Home: Houston Dynamo conceded 0.93 goals per match at home in the league this season across 15 home matches
All probabilities
Result
Houston Dynamo37%
Draw27%
Minnesota United36%
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw64%
Minnesota United or draw63%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.51 : 1.49, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Minnesota United: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Minnesota United: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (8 of 12 total)
- Houston Dynamo: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Houston Dynamo: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1 · Minnesota United 3-4-3
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 11 L. Ennali
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 5 L. Halter
- 21 F. Negri
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 9 L. Foster
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 52 C. Valerius
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 23 M. Duggan
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 25 N. Triantis
- 30 O. Géne
- 13 A. Markanich
- 16 A. Jackson
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 18 M. Gonzalez
Substitutes
- 17 N. Markanich
- 4 M. Saracchi Pintos
- 23 D. McGuire
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 34 A. Resch
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 37 G. Rivera
- 11 M. Malone
- 3 K. Duncan
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 15 M. Boxall
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 5 N. Romero
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 94 K. Rizvanovich
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