Match report →
LA Galaxy – San Diego2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.72
Total xG
3.21
San Diego
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Marcus Ingvartsen on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jeppe Tverskov on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: LA Galaxy won 3 of their last 5 matches, while San Diego remain winless in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: LA Galaxy scored 1.33 goals per match at home, San Diego conceded 1.93 goals per match away
- Table: LA Galaxy are 8th in the league with 39 points, San Diego are 13th with 33 points
Risks
- Head-to-head: San Diego won all 3 previous meetings against LA Galaxy
- Match interval: LA Galaxy enter the match with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy42%
Draw26%
San Diego32%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw68%
San Diego or draw58%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Diego: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- LA Galaxy with João Klauss starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (10/17 games, last 30)
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1 · San Diego 4-3-3
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 26 H. Miller
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 15 J. Haak
- 14 J. Nelson
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 21 R. Taylor
- 18 M. Reus
- 27 E. Thommy
- 99 J. De Mello
San Diego
- 13 P. Sisniega Fink
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 20 A. Godoy
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 99 M. Achouri
Substitutes
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 22 E. Wynder
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 2 L. Calegari
- 8 O. Valakari
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 36 D. Mimbang Nyangono
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