Match report →
Atlanta United – Inter Miami1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlanta United
1.60
Total xG
3.47
Inter Miami
1.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlanta United | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.45 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Ajani Fortune not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| M. Silvetti not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Standings: Inter Miami is 2nd with 52 points from 29 matches, Atlanta United is 14th with 30 points
- Home/Away: Inter Miami scores 2.07 goals per away match in the league, Atlanta United concedes 1.86 per home match
- Shots on target: Inter Miami averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, Atlanta United 4.6 per match
Risks
- Defense: Inter Miami concedes 1.72 goals per match in the league this season
- Rest days: Inter Miami with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Atlanta United32%
Draw25%
Inter Miami43%
Double chance
Atlanta United or draw57%
Inter Miami or draw68%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atlanta United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (10 points lost)
- Inter Miami: 3 cards per game (31 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Atlanta United 4-3-3 · Inter Miami 4-3-3
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 55 T. Jacob
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 11 G. Galoppo
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 36 B. Embolo
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 2 G. Luján Melli
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 7 R. de Paul
- 22 D. Ayala
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
- 19 G. Berterame
Substitutes
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 7 S. Alzate
- 20 L. Brennan
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 47 M. Edwards
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 22 F. Picault
- 35 A. Fortune
- 4 F. Mura
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 17 I. Fray
- 20 S. Morales
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 56 D. Pintér
- 88 A. Shaw
- 11 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →