Match report →
Sporting KC – Austin1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sporting KC
1.76
Total xG
3.01
Austin
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting KC | Austin |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.66 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.59 | |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Calvin Harris on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Justin Reynolds not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Christian Ramirez on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jon Bell not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brendan Hines-Ike on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Sporting KC scores 1.47 goals per game at home in the league this season, Austin concedes 2.33 per game away
- Form: Austin remained winless in their last 5 games with 2 draws and 3 losses
Risks
- Standings: Austin collected 31 points from 30 games in the league this season, Sporting KC 22 points
All probabilities
Result
Sporting KC48%
Draw26%
Austin26%
Double chance
Sporting KC or draw74%
Austin or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.76 : 1.25, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC with Taylor Calheira starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (13/8 games, last 30)
- Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Austin: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)
- Austin: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Sporting KC: 67% of all goals in the first half (12 of 18, last 12 games)
- Sporting KC: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Sporting KC 4-4-2 · Austin 3-4-3
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 8 J. Davis
- 15 J. Miller
- 28 W. Meyer
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 22 Z. Bassong
- 7 O. Capemba
- 19 T. Calheira
- 17 S. Afrifa
Austin
- 12 D. Las
- 3 M. Desler
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 38 E. Torres
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 10 M. Uzuni
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
Substitutes
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 2 I. James
- 14 C. Harris
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 23 E. Bartlow
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
- 33 O. Wolff
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 1 B. Stuver
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 32 M. Burton
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 21 C. Ramírez
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