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Major League Soccer10/14/2026, 11:30 PM

Toronto – Orlando City3 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Toronto
1.54
Total xG
3.22
Orlando City
1.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorTorontoOrlando City
Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)+0.94
Attack strength (1.32x league average)+0.39
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.32+0.32
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)+0.23
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average)+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)−0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)−0.17
Derrick Etienne Jr. on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Marco Paơalić not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Prediction signal: The mathematical model calculates a 40% win probability for Orlando City
  • Attacking form: Orlando City scored more goals recently (2.6) than their season average (1.82)
  • Tactical metric: Orlando City averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches

Risks

  • Away weakness: Orlando City concede an average of 3.36 goals per away match
  • Goal scoring drop: Toronto's goal output dropped to 1.0 recently compared to their season average of 1.46

All probabilities

Result
Toronto34%
Draw26%
Orlando City40%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Double chance
Toronto or draw60%
Orlando City or draw66%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%

Most likely scores

1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
3:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. IvĂĄn Angulo: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
  2. Toronto: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  3. Orlando City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  4. Toronto: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  5. Orlando City: 75% of all goals in the second half (18 of 24, last 12 games)
  6. Toronto: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 20)

Lineups

Toronto 4-4-2 · Orlando City 4-4-2

Toronto
  • 1 L. Gavran
  • 22 R. Laryea
  • 12 Z. Monlouis
  • 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
  • 3 M. Pereira de Souza
  • 7 T. Corbeanu
  • 14 A. Coello Camarero
  • 6 N. Dorsch
  • 20 D. Salloi
  • 9 J. Sargent
  • 90 L. Morgan
Orlando City
  • 71 M. CrĂ©peau
  • 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
  • 4 D. Brekalo
  • 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
  • 27 V. Nogueira de Oliveira
  • 77 I. Angulo CortĂ©s
  • 5 L. de Aquino
  • 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
  • 23 H. Sarajian
  • 7 A. Griezmann
  • 10 M. Ojeda
Substitutes
  • 10 D. Mihailovic
  • 11 D. Etienne Jr.
  • 17 E. AristizĂĄbal Chavarriaga
  • 19 K. Franklin
  • 23 W. Yarbrough Story
  • 71 M. Cimermancic
  • 38 J. Gilman
  • 27 A. Piedrahita DĂ­az
  • 96 R. Chukwu
  • 9 D. Dike
  • 3 A. MarĂ­n GĂłmez
  • 8 B. Ojeda RodrĂ­guez
  • 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
  • 12 Javier Otero
  • 19 Z. Taifi
  • 21 N. Miller
  • 35 J. Gerbet
  • 11 T. Souza de Lima
  • 44 B. Rhein Goncalves

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