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Major League Soccer

Atlanta United - Nashville SC

04/18/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlanta United
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Nashville SC
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
AUNS

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-1.16
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.64
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.17
Rising form (1.5 vs 1 season average)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
+0.04
Miguel Almirón on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.08
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
+0.03
Sam Surridge on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
Patrick Yazbek on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 2
    Nashville SC: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 3
    Nashville SC with Reed Baker-Whiting: 8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (4 of 7 games)

  • 4
    Atlanta United with MatĆ­as Galarza Fonda: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

29%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Nashville SC's outstanding season performance (1st place, 16 points) and strong goal average of 2.14 goals per game
  • Atlanta United's poor overall form and defense (13th place, 1.71 goals conceded per game)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a slightly higher win probability of 38% for Nashville SC
Risk Factors
  • Nashville SC's higher average of goals conceded in away games is 2.0 compared to their season average of 0.57
  • According to advanced statistics, Nashville SC shows a slowed goal production of 2.2 recent goals compared to their season average of 2.5 goals
Overview

Atlanta United (13th place, 4 points) host Nashville SC (1st place, 16 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 18, 2026, 7:30 PM. Nashville SC has had an excellent start to the season and leads the table, while Atlanta United is fighting for points in the lower half of the league.

Form

Atlanta United's current form shows LWDLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) across all competitions in their last five matches. Their last game ended in a loss.

Nashville SC, on the other hand, shows strong form with WWWLW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games. The team won their last match.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlanta United has scored an average of 0.86 goals per game this season and conceded 1.71 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet. Both teams scored in 3 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 matches.

Nashville SC shows a strong offense with an average of 2.14 goals per game and a solid defense with only 0.57 goals conceded per game. They kept 3 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 3 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches.

Atlanta United scores an average of 0.86 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goals. Nashville SC scores an average of 3.0 goals away and concedes 2.0 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the four head-to-head matches between the two teams, Atlanta United secured 1 win, Nashville SC recorded 1 win, and there were 2 draws. Nashville SC scored a total of 4 goals, while Atlanta United scored 3 goals. The last encounter saw Atlanta United win 1-0 against Nashville SC on August 31, 2025.

Key Players

For Atlanta United, Aleksey Miranchuk is an important player, having scored 4 goals in 6 season appearances. His form is rising with 3 goals in his last 3 games. Emmanuel Latte Lath contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 games. TomƔs Jacob has scored 1 goal in 7 games.

For Nashville SC, Cristian Espinoza is a key player with 2 goals and 2 assists in 7 season appearances. Warren Madrigal scored 2 goals in 7 games. Hany Mukhtar has 2 goals and 1 assist in 7 appearances.

Goalkeepers

Lucas Hoyos, Atlanta United's goalkeeper, has recorded 1 clean sheet this season. Brian Schwake, Nashville SC's goalkeeper, has achieved 3 clean sheets in the current season.

Influences

Atlanta United's home record with an average of 0.86 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded suggests a moderate home advantage. Nashville SC has scored an average of 3.0 goals away and conceded 2.0 goals.

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