đŸ‡ș🇾

Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - Inter Miami

04/23/2026, 01:30 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Inter Miami
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RSLIM

Real Salt Lake

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.51
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.41
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.15
Juan Manuel Sanabria on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Aiden Hezarkhani on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Inter Miami

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.76
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.09
Mateo Silvetti on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake with Griffin Dillon: 5.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

28%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis identifies Real Salt Lake as slight favorites with a 48% win probability
  • Real Salt Lake shows a positive offensive trend, currently scoring an average of 2.8 goals compared to their season average of 2.3
  • Lionel Messi is Inter Miami's top scorer with 7 goals and 1 assist, despite his form showing a slight declining trend
Risk Factors
  • Real Salt Lake faces several absences, including K. Henry (Groin Injury), J. Barea Barroso (Doubtful), P. Quinton (Doubtful), J. Arias (Groin Injury), E. Somto Eneli (Knee Injury), and A. Piol (Achilles tendon problems)
  • Inter Miami is without Y. Bright (Red Card Suspension), while S. ReguilĂłn RodrĂ­guez (Doubtful) and D. Ayala (Doubtful) are questionable
  • The pipeline analysis predicts a high probability for both teams to score (56%) and over 2.5 goals (52%), suggesting an open game
Overview

Real Salt Lake (5th place, 16 points) host Inter Miami (2nd place, 15 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on April 23, 2026, 1:30 AM

Real Salt Lake aims to capitalize on their strong form to defend their high league position

Inter Miami seeks to reduce the gap to the top of the table

Form

Real Salt Lake shows very strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches in all competitions (Form: WWDWW)

Inter Miami is unbeaten in their last 5 matches, achieving 2 wins and 3 draws (Form: DWDDW)

Real Salt Lake's last game was a 4-2 home win against San Diego

Inter Miami recently won 3-2 away against Colorado Rapids

Statistics

Real Salt Lake scores an average of 2.29 goals per game and concedes 1.43 goals per game this season

At home, Real Salt Lake scores an average of 2.2 goals and concedes 1.0 goal

Inter Miami scores an average of 2.0 goals per game and concedes 1.75 goals per game this season

Away from home, Inter Miami scores an average of 2.0 goals and concedes 1.67 goals

Real Salt Lake has not kept any clean sheets this season

Inter Miami achieved 1 clean sheet

Head-to-Head

In the 1 previous head-to-head match, there were 0 wins for Real Salt Lake and 1 win for Inter Miami

Overall, Real Salt Lake scored 0 goals and Inter Miami scored 2 goals

Inter Miami won the last encounter 2-0 on February 22, 2024

Key Players

For Real Salt Lake, the following players are in good form or important:

Sergi Solans (Attacker): 5 season goals, 1 assist, form stable

Zavier Gozo (Attacker): 2 season goals, 3 assists, form rising

Diego Luna (Midfielder): 2 season goals, 1 assist, form stable

For Inter Miami, the following players are in good form or important:

Lionel Messi (Attacker): 7 season goals, 1 assist, form declining

GermĂĄn Berterame (Attacker): 2 season goals, 1 assist, form stable

Rodrigo De Paul (Midfielder): 1 season goal, 2 assists, form declining

Goalkeepers

Rafael Cabral of Real Salt Lake has an average season rating of 6.86 and no clean sheets

Dayne St. Clair of Inter Miami has an average season rating of 6.41 and 1 clean sheet

Influences

Real Salt Lake shows a strong home offense with 11 goals scored and only 5 goals conceded in home games

Inter Miami scores 12 goals away and concedes 10 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.