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Seattle Sounders – Los Angeles FC2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Seattle Sounders
1.52
Total xG
2.91
Los Angeles FC
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Seattle Sounders | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Hassani Dotson on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home: Seattle Sounders averages 1.5 goals per game at home in the league, Los Angeles FC concedes 1.25 away
- Tactics: Los Angeles FC averaged 6 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Seattle Sounders 5 per game
Risks
- Standings: Los Angeles FC is 6th in the league with 47 points, Seattle Sounders is 10th with 43 points
- Form: Seattle Sounders is winless in the last 5 matches with 3 losses, Los Angeles FC recorded 1 win
All probabilities
Result
Seattle Sounders39%
Draw28%
Los Angeles FC33%
Double chance
Seattle Sounders or draw67%
Los Angeles FC or draw61%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.52 : 1.39, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: 83% of all goals in the second half (15 of 18, last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Jordan Morris starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (15/7 games, last 30)
- Paul Arriola: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Los Angeles FC: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 · Los Angeles FC 4-2-3-1
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 20 K. Kim
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 31 H. Dotson
- 7 C. Roldan
- 13 J. Morris
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 90 S. Gomez
- 9 D. Joveljić
Los Angeles FC
- 31 C. Carter
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 5 R. Porteous
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 8 M. Delgado
- 9 A. Sieb
- 81 L. Walta
- 99 D. Bouanga
- 7 H. Son
Substitutes
- 8 C. Clark
- 27 J. Ferreira
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 16 A. Roldan
- 17 P. Arriola
- 24 S. Frei
- 35 A. Lopez
- 37 S. Brunell
- 45 P. Kingston
- 4 R. Sailor
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 1 H. Lloris
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 6 I. Lima
- 33 A. Long
- 20 S. Vasquez Cabrera
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