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Seattle Sounders – Houston Dynamo0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Seattle Sounders
1.73
Total xG
2.73
Houston Dynamo
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Seattle Sounders | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Morris on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Mateusz Bogusz not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Héctor Herrera not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Seattle Sounders with 2 wins from their last 5 games, Houston Dynamo winless in their last 5 games
- Home/Away: Seattle Sounders score 1.6 goals per game at home in the league, Houston Dynamo concede 1.67 per game away
Risks
- Table: Houston Dynamo are 5th in the league this season with 48 points, Seattle Sounders 7th with 43 points
- Away: Houston Dynamo score 1.47 goals per game away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Seattle Sounders53%
Draw27%
Houston Dynamo20%
Double chance
Seattle Sounders or draw80%
Houston Dynamo or draw47%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.73 : 0.99, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: 80% of all goals in the second half (16 of 20, last 12 games)
- Houston Dynamo: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (8 points lost)
- Seattle Sounders with Hassani Dotson starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (14/9 games, last 30)
- Seattle Sounders: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Houston Dynamo: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 · Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 16 A. Roldan
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 31 H. Dotson
- 7 C. Roldan
- 27 J. Ferreira
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 90 S. Gomez
- 9 D. Joveljić
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 11 L. Ennali
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 21 F. Negri
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 9 L. Foster
Substitutes
- 8 C. Clark
- 17 P. Arriola
- 24 S. Frei
- 37 S. Brunell
- 13 J. Morris
- 45 P. Kingston
- 4 R. Sailor
- 20 K. Kim
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 17 N. Markanich
- 23 D. McGuire
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 14 D. Holmes
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 35 L. Erb
- 37 G. Rivera
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